Saltzman Says...two sides to every Warrior

Warriors are entering a new season with a new owner, new asst. general manager, new head coach, and some new players.  Optimism is in the air like the smell of old converse sneakers in the old run down gym used to shoot the movie Hoosiers.

As a season ticket holder since 2005, I cannot share the optimism.  However, here is the best case scenario and worst case scenario for each player this season.

PG Stephen Curry
Positive:  He is entering his third season, and usually that is when a young point guard can really blossom.  He has improved several parts of his game, and as the unquestioned leader of the team, he can elevate even further with a more disciplined approach to defense.  Becomes one of the best PG's in the game.

Negative: He is undersized for PG on both ends of the floor, and he is never able to defend his position.  He regresses as a passer and struggles to run the offense.  Ends up a 2nd unit 2 guard like Jason Terry or Ben Gordon or J.J. Redick, instead of an elite PG.

SG Monta Ellis
Positive: He doesn't care about anything but winning.  He becomes the NBA steals leader without sacrificing the lane again and again.  He becomes a solid defender, and continues to be deadly from 18'.  His three point shot improves, and he gets to the free throw line more with his takes to the basket.

Negatives: The trade rumors continue, the turmoil with management never heals, he is sent packing and never lives up to his full potential in Oakland.  Worse, he stays here, but stays a shoot first, shoot second 2 guard with no defense to be proud of and never goes to the line.

SF Dorell Wright
Positives: He continues to be one of the best 3 point shooters in the game, but his defense is the centerpiece of Mark Jackson's team.  He is able to stabilize Kobe, LeBron, and Dirk at different times during the year, and his defense makes him one of the best all around players in the league.

Negatives: He becomes nothing more than an outside shooter.  His defense falters and he becomes a liability as the starting 3.

PF David Lee
Positives: His grit and toughness evolves into production on the defensive end, and his hustle and hard work allows him to lead the league in offensive rebounds.  His double double's help lead the team on both ends of the floor.

Negatives: His offense becomes nothing more than an occasional elbow jumper.  He becomes a stat collector for rebounds and never grabs a hustle rebound or gets a key put back.  His money becomes a strain on the team's finances and they can't bring in an impact player for several years.

C Andris Biedrins
Positives: His double double's come back, as he gets back to using his quickness to get to the glass without fear of the free throw line.  His defense gets even better as he solidifies the back end of the defense.  His free throw shot improves with dedication.

Negatives: His game is shot, his toughness is permanently gone, and he becomes a $9 million lump on the end of the bench.

Bench

PG Charles Jenkins
Positives: He gets added to the long list of New York City PG's who flourish in the NBA.  He gets points in the paint and makes great passes on the offensive end, and holds his own on defense.

Negatives: He can't get accustomed to the NBA, and struggles with turnovers and his defense at the next level.

SG/SF Klay Thompson
Positives: Becomes a seamless transition to the NBA, much like Stephen Curry, with his NBA lineage.  His shot keeps him earning minutes, and his points per game helps lead a young bench to a much improved season.

Negatives: Can't hang on the defensive end with his size and lack of elite quickness and he can't get his own shot at the NBA level.

PF Ekpe Udoh
Positives: His defense anchors the 2nd unit and he becomes a relentless rebounder and shot blocker.  He starts to learn the offensive side of the game a little and can put up points with open jumpers.

Negatives: Is a complete non factor on the offensive end, and spends too much time on the bench in foul trouble.  He gets handled by bigger and stronger 4's and can't keep good 4's out of the paint for easy points.

C Kwame Brown
Positives: His defense keeps the rim off limits to the 2nd unit and he earns some starts with his defensive play.  He actually provides 6-8 PPG with put backs and hustle plays and contributes on both ends.

Negatives: He becomes a trade piece at the trade deadline on his one year deal and he has no impact on the offensive end at all.  He becomes a 6 foul defender who can't help at the 5, and leaves Biedrins on the floor way too many minutes a game.  Even worse, Lou Amundson and Biedrins are stuck playing key center minutes because of his inability to play.

PF Lou Amundson
Positives: Great energy guy off the bench who helps the 2nd unit keep the best teams out of the paint and away from 2nd chance points.

Negatives: Becomes a liability on both ends with an inability to score and a inability to defend.

C Jeremy Tyler
Positives: Becomes a force in the middle by the end of the year with his ability on both ends.  Is the steal of the draft with his size and ability.  Can score in the low post and can defend the rim.  No need for Kwame Brown next year because of his growth.

Negatives: Permanent D-League player who never makes it to Oakland.

Saltzman Says...Warriors collecting peices

The Warriors have brought in a brain trust to rival most NBA teams. Jerry West and company know the best thing Golden State can do is to collect players other teams will covet. By grabbing three prospects in the draft, the Warriors have more options heading into free agency.

Klay Thompson - the son of former #1 overall pick Mychal Thompson, gives the Warriors a 6-7 swingman to join Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. If you add restricted free agent Reggie Williams, the Warriors have four players who can score the basketball and could be assets other teams want. Most NBA teams don't call the Warriors about Acie Law or Charlie Bell and Jeremy Lin is a project at best.

Charles Jenkins - adding Jenkins, a 6-3 New York City point guard out of Hofstra, the Warriors have a possible upgrade at point to Law and Lin. Curry and Ellis desperately need minutes off the floor over the 82 game season and beyond, and these two guards can help with that.

Jeremy Tyler - the Warriors then went out and spent $2 million buying the draft rights to Tyler from Charlotte. Tyler is a 6-10 power forward who recently turned 20 and skipped his senior year of high school to play professionally overseas. If the gamble pays off, Tyler could be one of the two big bodies the Warriors desperately need to go with Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh, David Lee and Lou Amundson.

If nothing else, the Warriors added three players to use as building blocks or trade bait as they look to finally get back to the post season.

Saltzman Says...Warriors have key pieces missing

The Warriors have a closer.  Do they have any other pieces?

In my previous post, I established my 5 criteria for a championship:
1. A center who can defend the paint
2. A great defender on the perimeter
3. A point guard who can facilitate
4. Perimeter scoring
5. A Closer


So, to keep this local, how far are the Golden State Warriors from a championship?  On a scale of 1 to 10 (1 being Todd Fuller and 10 being Bill Russell) how far away is Golden State from a title?

1. Andris Biedrins (4)
2. Dorell Wright (6)
3. Stephen Curry (6)
4. Reggie Williams (9)
5. Monta Ellis (9)

6. David Lee (7): it might sound redundant, and it is almost always the case, but a rebounding PF would rank next.
7. Acie Law (2): Backup facilitator is almost as important as the starter, because you always need a point who can run the offense.
8. Ekpe Udoh (6): you need another defender of the rim.  Most big men can't play anywhere near 48 minutes a game, so you can't have big stretches without a strong defender in the paint.
9. Charlie Bell (2): Another perimeter defender who can sub in and help keep the other team from going on a run.
10. Vladimir Radmanovic (5): Another perimeter scorer who can sub in and help keep the other team from shutting down the offense.
11.  Lou Amundson (5): Energy guy off the bench, who can help the frontcourt through an 82 game season and four rounds of the playoffs.
12. Jeremy Lin (2): Energy guy off the bench, who can help the backcourt through an 82 game season and four rounds of the playoffs.


The biggest problem the Warriors face going forward is Andris Biedrins.  He is nowhere near the center who seemed to not only deserve $9 million a year to be our defender in the paint, but was only going to get better.  Instead, he has only gotten worse.  He has become a shell of himself on the offensive end, mainly because of a fear of the free throw line.  He has become so passive, it is not worth the minimal effort he does give on the defensive end to warrant the money he is making.

The Warriors have only six players who are above average for their role on any championship caliber team.  1. Monta Ellis is clearly one of the elite closers in the NBA.
2. Reggie Williams has clearly established himself as an outside scoring threat.  If the Warriors are to become a championship team, they need to allow Williams to flourish in this role.
3. David Lee has a lot of areas he can improve on, but this ability on the glass is essential to any team looking to play into May and June.
4. Stephen Curry will rise up this list soon enough, but his role as the team's facilitator is only slightly above average at this point.  He is a much better shooter than most point guards in the league, but as a passer, leader and defender, he has work to do.
5. Dorell Wright has been given the role of perimeter defender, and has shown to be adequate against the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James.  He is not where he needs to be in this role, but he is also been asked to be much more.  If the Warriors can find a defensive first swingman who can play SF, Wright can be a more valuable asset to the Warriors long term.
6. Ekpe Udoh could unseat Biedrins as soon as this year, but his play at the rim has shown the potential to be a part of something special.  He may never be the starting center on a championship team, but he could already be a contributor.

Saltzman Says...Warriors should dump their waste

State of the Warriors Franchise

After all is said and done, the Golden State Warriors have 5 players worthy of keeping past this season, 2 players not worth enough to move, and the rest aren't worth their contract.  That may seem harsh, but when a team has been so inept for so long, they don't deserve best case scenarios and optimism. 

Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Dorrell Wright, and David Lee.  The Warriors actually have 4/5 of a starting lineup.  That doesn't mean that the Warriors will ever win a championship with that backcourt, or Wright as a starting wingman, but they have 4 starters worthy of a place on this team long term.  Andris Biedrins was a great young center two years ago, but he has become a shell of himself.  He has become so paranoid about his pathetic free throw shooting, that he stopped being aggressive and he stopped working hard on the offensive side of the floor.

Reggie Williams is a good backup swingman.  So was Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow.  So was Marco Belinelli and Jamal Crawford.  So was Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes.  So was...are you sensing a theme here.  The Warriors have been mostly successful at finding good bench players who aren't good enough to start.

Ekpe Udoh and Lou Amundson are both big men with small NBA contracts.  They are both signed through next year and beyond and have no business going anywhere else.  They are good role players, much in same way Ronny Turiaf was. 

Vladimir Radmanovic, Dan Gadzuric, Brandan Wright and Charlie Bell are not the answer.  None of them should be back in 2011-2012.  They are all making millions more than they are worth to an NBA team.

So what do we do?

Do we make a blockbuster trade for Carmelo Anthony?:

No, but I like the thought process.  Like it or not, it's an All-Star run league and the Warriors haven't had an All-Star since 1997.  Anthony hasn't won a title in Denver, and can't win by himself.  Neither can LeBron James, Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant.  Kobe needed Pau Gasol, and LeBron and Wade have each other now.  Monta Ellis is becoming an All-Star.  He needs help.  David Lee certainly applies as a 20-10 power forward who loves to hustle and get after it on defense.  Stephen Curry is certainly capable of being a running mate, and Dorell Wright is showing to be one of the best bargains in the game.  At the end of the day, Ellis still needs his other cornerstone.  Anthony could be it, but it would cost too much to get him.  Especially with so many teams after him and his desire to end up in New York next year anyway.

What are some trades that would make sense?

If Charlotte was looking to save money....

Trade Dan Gadzuric, Brandan Wright and a future draft pick for Gerald Wallace

If DeAndre Jordan is the answer at center for the L.A. Clippers...

Trade Vladimir Radmanovic and Charlie Bell and a future draft pick to the Clippers for Chris Kaman

If the Memphis Grizzlies have given up on O.J. Mayo...

Trade Andris Biedrins to Memphis for Hasheem Thabeet and O.J. Mayo

New Look:
PG Curry
SG Ellis
SF Wallace
PF Lee
C Kaman

PG Mayo
SG Williams
SF Wright
PF Udoh
C Amundson

PG Law/Lin
C Thabeet

We get a reliable center in Kaman, a legitimate small forward in Wallace, and a potent 6th man in O.J. Mayo.  With the size and length of all three we can continue to build around our undersized trio of Ellis, Curry and Lee.  

Charlotte and Los Angeles would get cap relief.  That would be the biggest reason to take someone like Gadzuric or Radmanovic.  Obviously they are not getting the talent back that you might hope for for Wallace and Kaman.  But between the money they would save long term and the 1st round picks that would come along with the expiring contracts, it might be tempting.

Memphis would get an upgrade from Thabeet and insurance for Marc Gasol.  It very well may be too much money to pay a 7'0" who doesn't start, but maybe Biedrins can flourish playing with Gasol and Zach Randolph.  You can't teach 7'0" and having a guy as young as Biedrins may appeal to them.

The trip of Kaman, Wallace and Mayo joining our foursome gives us 7 capable NBA starters on our team.  That, along with Williams and two decent big men in Udoh and Admunson gives us a team that can compete for the playoffs every year.  Thabeet would get time to develop in the D-League along with Jeremy Lin, and in next year's draft we can go after a PG or a C to challenge those two for a roster spot.  Until trades like this are made, we will still always be a few players away from the playoffs.

Saltzman Says... What can the Warriors get for nothing?

1. PG Stephen Curry
2. SG Monta Ellis
3. SF Dorrell Wright
4. PF David Lee
5. C Andris Biedrins

Unless a big trade is made, this is the starting lineup for the Golden State Warriors for the next 3 years.
All of these players are locked up for at least 3 years, and all are playing well when healthy.

6. Reggie Williams has been a bargain for the kind of offensive scorer he is.

The jury is out of rookie 7. PF Ekpe Udoh and 8. PF/C Lou Amundson because they are hurt, but they have small contracts.

9. Swingman Rodney Carney is making nothing by NBA standards, so he is worth every penny considering his ability on both ends of the floor.

Who belongs in the other three spots long term on this roster?

Jeremy Lin is signed through next year, but that doesn't guarantee him a spot on the dress list.
Jeff Adrien is a banger inside in the mold of Brandon Bass, Paul Millsap, and Craig Smith.  Is he worth keeping?
Charlie Bell is signed through next year, but hasn't made much of a contribution.  His expiring contract next year could play a big role in landing a younger player.
Dan Gadzuric, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Brandan Wright are 21' of garbage making almost $1 million a foot.

For $21 million, plus the $4 million Charlie Bell is making is plenty of money to throw at a team looking to cash in on Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony next year.

Stephen Curry and Dorell Wright are not better than Paul or 'Melo, but are they worth waiting for just to lose out like New Jersey, Los Angeles, and Cleveland did with the LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer sweepstakes.

What teams are desperate?  Orlando?  Houston?  Portland?  Philadelphia?  New York?  New Orleans?

Would Rashard Lewis be worth giving up $21 million coming off the books?
What about Vince Carter?
Gilbert Arenas?
Andre Iguodala?
Elton Brand?
Brandon Roy?
Yao Ming?
Eddy Curry?
David West?