Friday, December 31, 2010

ESPN Magazine Says... Buster Posey is NEXT

Buster Posey
Posey took MLB by storm this season, helping the Giants to a World Series victory.
It hasn't been easy being a Buster. Think about it: Busters are usually pets, mostly dogs, and sometimes you're asked if you're housebroken. People shout, "Hey, watch it, Buster!" as if they're the first to think of it. 
So when a guy like San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey comes along, he gives the rest of us Busters some street cred. Which is why I wanted to thank him the first time we spoke last June. But as soon as I heard his voice over the phone, I changed my mind. He sounded extremely serious, greeting me with an abrupt "Hello." His no-nonsense tone suggested that bonding about our name wasn't going to work.
Instead I asked about his game preparation. It's what Posey spends most of his day thinking about, meticulously studying film and poring over scouting reports. That's one reason he made it to the bigs as quickly as he did. In 2009, his one full season in the minors, he posted a .947 OPS between Class-A and Triple-A and earned a September call-up. He was promoted for good last May 29 and ripped three hits in his first start of the season, which was just a glimpse of what was to come. At age 23, Posey hit .305, blasted 18 homers and handled baseball's best pitching staff with the savvy of a veteran. In November, his season ended in a champagne celebration. Two weeks later, he was named National League Rookie of the Year.
Posey is the rarest of breeds, a catcher who can field his position with ease and swing the bat with the best. His position lacks the hey-look-at-me factor of other up-the-middle spots on the diamond, but if you watched Game 4 of the NLCS, you know that Posey can do special things. He went 4-for-5 with two doubles, each of his hits coming on a different pitch type -- fastball, curve, slider and changeup. Meanwhile, he stayed focused behind the plate. In the fifth inning, he scooped a short-hop throw from centerfielder Aaron Rowand to tag out Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz on a bang-bang play at the plate. The deft maneuver preserved a one-run lead in an eventual 6-5 Giants win. Posey, who's 6'1", and 205 pounds, gunned down 37.1 percent of attempted basestealers in 2010, fifth-best among catchers with at least 75 games caught.
He has become San Francisco's first homegrown superstar position player since Matt Williams. And at least one veteran scout, who saw him hit for the first time this past June, immediately compared him to another righthander: Albert Pujols. "His approach at the plate is that good," says the scout. "If you throw him a fastball, he drives it to the opposite field. If you throw him a breaking ball, he'll pull it. He doesn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone." Many hitters swing early in the count, because they don't want to fall behind the pitcher. "But the thing about Buster is he's not afraid to hit with two strikes," says Giants manager Bruce Bochy. Posey hit .257 with two strikes this past season, which was ninth-best in all of baseball.
All this success makes it hard to believe he took up catching just four years ago. At Lee County High, in Leesburg, Ga., Posey played shortstop and pitched, but he stood out most on the mound. Before his senior year, he pitched in the World Junior Championship on a Team USA squad that featured future big leaguers Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Ike Davis (Mets) and Justin Upton (Diamondbacks). He was named the Georgia Gatorade Player of the Year the next spring and graduated fourth in his class with a 3.938 GPA. "My parents set high standards," says Posey, who picked up his nickname from his father, who was known as Buster in his youth. "It wasn't okay if you got a B. You should shoot for high standards, and believe they're obtainable."
As a freshman at Florida State, Posey played only shortstop. But during the fall of his sophomore year, Seminoles assistant coach Meat Martin, son of FSU coach Mike Martin, had an idea: Put Posey at catcher. It might be the best thing for him in the long run, Meat said, because he wouldn't have the foot speed to stay at shortstop as a pro. Mike Martin was skeptical. Posey was an All-America shortstop, and Meat wanted to make him a catcher?
It wasn't completely insane. FSU had a hole at catcher and another excellent shortstop in Mark Hallberg (now a D-backs farmhand). So Mike Martin figured he'd at least see the kid catch a few from the crouch. That meant 85 fastballs. "He caught every one," Martin says, "as if he'd been doing that his whole life."
Posey -- who played all nine positions in a game as an FSU junior -- made the switch from short to catcher seamlessly. He was a finalist as a soph for the Johnny Bench Award, given annually to the college game's best backstop. Then he won it in 2008, after hitting an out- rageous .463 with 26 homers in 68 games. Fitting, because Posey might be the best all-around catcher since the award's namesake.
As with quarterbacks, catchers usually take years to develop. Their skills are refined through repetition, like framing pitches to coax an umpire into calling a strike, or blocking balls in the dirt. It also takes time for a backstop to develop a rapport with pitchers. Some young catchers can defer too much, while others are too pushy and take it personally when a pitcher shakes off a sign. And yet Posey immediately demonstrated to the San Francisco pitchers that he was prepared but not overbearing. "You try to get a feel for each guy," he says. "For example, what are they throwing in a 2-1 count against a great fastball hitter? I tried my best to make them confident in what I was doing, knowing each guy is going to be different."
The pitching staff took notice. "You want your catcher to be unafraid and assertive," says righthander Matt Cain. "He was not afraid to jump right in. He just wanted to get it right."
As I learned in our June phone call, Posey is serious about his baseball. So serious that, by the end of the season, Bochy found himself at ease seeking the rookie's insight into how the pitcher on the mound was faring. Never was this more evident than in Game 3 of the World Series. Enigmatic lefty Jonathan Sánchez was on the hill, clearly gassed at the end of a long season. After Sánchez gave up a three-run homer in the second inning to Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland, Guillermo Mota began warming up in the bullpen. But Posey believed he could coax a few more innings out of the southpaw. Chatting in the dugout between innings, Posey and Sánchez talked about how to proceed without the pitcher's best fastball. "In that situation, you're telling him, 'This is not out of hand, just keep it right here,' " Posey says. "He made adjustments. From the third inning on, we went away from the fastball."
Instead of relying on the heater, a pitch Sánchez threw 65 percent of the time during the regular season, Posey called for off-speed stuff more than 60 percent of the game. He basically turned Sánchez into a junkballer for the rest of the night. Amazingly, the pitcher managed to make it into the fifth, allowing just one more run. It was the Giants' lone loss of the Fall Classic, but the bullpen was saved from six innings of mop-up duty, keeping the relievers fresh for the rest of the series.
Posey has been developing those preter- natural leadership skills for years. As an FSU junior, he was standing by his locker after a tough loss when a freshman teammate shot a grin toward another Seminole. Mike Martin happened to see it and asked, "What's so funny?" As the freshman started to explain, Posey turned and stared at him. "Shut up!" Posey snapped. "Just shut up!" Martin walked out of the room. Posey had done his job for him. The catcher led the Seminoles to the College World Series that June, and then, after signing with the Giants as the fifth overall pick, he received a $6.2 million bonus. Soon after, he walked into Martin's office and handed him a check for $50,000 -- a gift to the Noles baseball program.
When the new players arrived at school the next fall, Martin left Posey's locker untouched, with the nameplate in place. No player better represented the Florida State program, and Martin wanted future generations to follow Posey's lead. It wasn't long after the World Series that Posey was introduced at a Florida State football game, and it occurred to Martin, as he listened to the explosion of cheers, that he'd never heard any Seminoles player, in any sport, greeted so loudly.
I could almost hear Posey's smile two weeks later, when he called around Thanksgiving. He sounded a lot more relaxed than the first time we spoke. The blur of the World Series was behind him; he'd just returned home to Georgia from a vacation with his wife, Kristin. "Hey, Buster," he started. "It's Buster." He paused, and added with a chuckle, "How many phone conversations do you think have started like that?"
Better enjoy the jokes now. Buster will be getting serious again real soon.

Bleacher Report Says...10 Reasons for a Giants Repeat

Top Ten Reasons Giants can repeat in 2011
Written by Vinnie Cestone (Contributor)

10. The Machine
Who is this masked man wearing a bondage outfit? Is it Brian Wilson's neighbor? Is it Pat Burrell in his holiday party getup?
Whoever he is, he was present when the Giants won their first championship in San Francisco, so let's just say he was the Giants' good luck charm in 2010.
The Machine will probably be back for an encore in 2011 to bring the Giants more good fortune. Who knows what surprises he will bring forth.
The mystery that is The Machine will just have to continue into next year.
9. Bruce Bochy
Just like Brian Sabean, the Giants' manager, Bruce Bochy, was put on the chopping block. And just like Sabean, Bochy turned from goat to hero in 2010.
When given decent pieces to work with, Bochy can assemble a competitive team. In his first years as the Giants' manager, he was given little to work with as far as on-field talent and hence the losing records. However, once the starting pitching blossomed in 2009, and Bochy was given a strong bullpen with the acquisition of Jeremy Affeldt and the emergence of Brian Wilson, he somehow squeezed 88 wins out of the Giants' horrendous 2009 offensive team.
In 2010, the Giants gave Bochy his most-talented team as manager. He had versatility in the bullpen and with his position players. With hitters who could finally give professional at bats, like Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff, he was able to actually manage and win.
Another one of Bochy's strengths is that he knows how to develop and manage a bullpen, as seen by the 2010 playoffs. Since a strong bullpen is a necessary foundation for any winning team, this is extremely important.
Bochy's immense knowledge of the game should also be mentioned. In 2010, many learned that Bochy is a very sharp baseball man, as shown by the time he helped the Giants win a game at Dodger Stadium when Don Mattingly had to take out Jonathon Broxton because he made two mound visits.
Bochy will be given the same bullpen depth and position-player versatility in 2011. As a knowledgeable baseball man, and a former catcher, expect another well-managed season from him.

8. Brian Sabean
The creator of FireSabean.com might want to issue an apology.
When the Giants' General Manager Brian Sabean is given enough financial flexibility, he does a nice job fielding a competitive team. How many teams can say they were in a pennant race in September for all but two years between 1997 and 2010?
The Giants were smack in the middle of one from 1997-2006 and 2009-2010. Yes, even when they finished well below .500 in 2005 and 2006, they still had a legitimate shot at the playoffs in September.
Although Sabean had some problems bringing in solid players in recent years, 2010 was a good year for him. When the Giants did not have a solidified bullpen, he brought in Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez mid-season to fill that gap. When the Giants were in desperate need of a professional plate approach and power, he acquired Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff from free agency. Not to mention, he brought in Cody Ross for almost nothing.
Don't forget that he also had a hand in assembling the world-class pitching staff of Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, and Sanchez, along with drafting Buster Posey.
Sabean should effectively add pieces again in 2011. With the Giants' payroll expected to reach $120 million, he will have more than enough financially to improve the team if need be, regardless of Barry Zito's big contract.

7. The Giants Media Crew
It sounds crazy, but even the Giants' media crew had a helping hand in the 2010 championship season, and they should not go unnoticed.
The Giants' 2010 media crew (CSN Bay Area, KNBR, Marty Lurie, Mychael Urban, Amy Gutierrez, F.P. Santangelo, and even Ashkon's inspirational song) will be back in 2011. The mass media is pervasive, it's everywhere, and can rapidly spread information or break stories.
They not only reported for the Giants very well, but they also looked out for the Giants when they felt something was not right.
An excellent example was when Jon Miller and F.P. Santangelo broke out the story about the unregulated Coors Field humidor. Their investigations and opinions prompted Major League Baseball to investigate the issue, and they even sent someone from the MLB to regulate the humidified baseballs during a crucial series between the Giants and the Rockies.
If something is amiss in 2011, the Giants' media crew will surely be there to investigate.

6. Fan Support
It has been a tough road for Giants fans, waiting since 1958 for their Giants to win a championship in San Francisco, but it finally happened, largely because of their support.
In years past, it seemed like Giants fans just about gave up. Even when the rival Los Angeles Dodgers came to AT&T Park, the stadium would be seemingly half-full of Dodger blue, but 2010 did away with all that.
From the first pitch to the last out, Giants fans were always on their feet. They did not cheer after strike three happened, but they cheered before strike three happened. During the playoffs and the final three regular-season games of 2010, they waved their rally towels, blanketed the ballpark in orange, and roared in anticipation for their hometown Giants.
They made songs that encouraged the Giants and their loyal fans to "Don't Stop Believin," even when things looked bleak. They were even celebrities like Rob Schneider, Robin Williams, and Steve Perry.
Because of the fine efforts of Giants fans from all across the country, they gave a helping hand in this 2010 championship season and are expected to do the same in 2011 and beyond.

5. Team Chemistry
Some say team chemistry is overrated, but the Giants will probably tell you otherwise.
Even after tough losses, the Giants would come back the next night in high spirits, leaving behind whatever woes that happened the previous night. In baseball, this is extremely important. A player must have a short memory because he might just be out there the next night in a key a situation.
What helped the Giants keep their chin up from day to day?
Staying positive is much easier in a clubhouse where everybody is getting along. Like in any sport, a team that sticks together will prevail in the end. As cliche as it sounds, the togetherness of the Giants allowed them to bounce back after tough losses all season long. They had just the right juju to get them through 162 games.
With Juan Uribe gone to the rival Dodgers, a prominent clubhouse figure, the Giants replaced him with the best possible alternative, Miguel Tejada. The Tejada signing (and their attempts to resign the majority of the 2010 squad) shows that the Giants know the importance of clubhouse chemistry. Not only is Tejada a veteran leader, he also can have a prominent influence on the Latin players on the Giants, particularly Pablo Sandoval, who he said he was going to keep in contact with throughout the offseason.
With the 2010 championship team mostly kept in tact, expect a similar clubhouse vibe to last year.
4. Decent Defense
On paper, the Giants look less than spectacular on defense in 2011. In fact, one might say the Giants are full of defensive liabilities with Pat Burrell in left field and Aubrey Huff at first.
Although the Giants lack the range of a good defensive team, they catch the balls they can get to and make all the routine plays. In 2010, they made only 73 errors, the fourth lowest in Major League Baseball. For a pitching staff who led all of baseball in strikeouts in 2010, the defensive liabilities will become less exposed anyway.
The only three clearly above-average defensive players on the Giants are Freddy Sanchez, Andres Torres, and Buster Posey. Torres' speed and excellent range is a big plus at AT&T Park, especially with the big right-center field. Sanchez also picks it at second-base, as he showed throughout the 2010 playoffs.
Somebody who has really separated himself defensively is Buster Posey. With his cannon arm, and his impressive ability to handle a World Series-winning pitching staff, he will surely win his fair share of gold gloves.
It is no secret that Pablo Sandoval struggled defensively in 2010. However, if he continues to lose weight this offseason and gets his act together, he might be less of a liability at third base in 2011. The extra weight not only affected his range, but it had a clear effect on his throwing, compared to 2009.

3. Key Additions for an Improved Offense
The Giants' offense only needs mediocrity to win the West, but anything less will not get the job done. In 2009, the Giants' offense was abysmal, nearly the worst in baseball. Even so, they somehow won 88 games, but it was not enough to beat out the Rockies for the Wild Card.
In 2010, the Giants were closer to the middle of the pack in hitting, and they won the West with 92 games. Now that the Giants added Miguel Tejada, Cody Ross (mid-2010), Pat Burrell (mid-2010), re-signed Aubrey Huff, and a healthier Pablo Sandoval (who lost 15 pounds in San Diego so far), their offense is worlds better than in April of 2010. They also have a stronger bench, with Mark DeRosa returning in 2011. Don't forget Buster Posey, who just jolted the offense in July.
More than at any other time of the post-Bonds era, the Giants' lineup features some pop, and that's all they need to repeat as World Series champions. In 2010, the Giants brought the home run ball back to San Francisco, as they hit 162 team home runs, something they have not done since 2006.
Now that the Giants can enjoy a full season of Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, and Buster Posey, expect the Giants to surpass their offensive numbers from 2010.

2. Deep Bullpen
Perhaps the biggest reason why any team wins the World Series is because of its strong bullpen. Just look at what Mariano Rivera has done for the Yankees in both the regular and post-season when they were winning all their championships.
The Giants are not becoming one of those great bullpens, they are already one of them. In 2010, they posted a 2.99 ERA with a major-league leading 57 saves, even though closer Brian Wilson saved 48 of them.
What makes the Giants' bullpen so great is its versatility. Nearly all of the 2010 bullpen will be back in the orange and black in 2011, with the exception of Chris Ray. And the entire bullpen can come up big if they need to. Even Guillermo Mota, who the Giants shored up for the back end of their bullpen, can set-up or close games if Brian Wilson were to be out with an injury or is unavailable.
The Giants have a reliever for any situation it seems. If the Giants need to face one of the National League Wests' toughest lefties, there is Javier Lopez to sling a swooping breaking ball for a strikeout. If they need a flamethrower to strike out someone late in the game with runners in scoring position, Santiago Casilla can come out with his 96+ MPH fastball and blow away any hitter. If the situation calls for a key double play, Jeremy Affeldt can be summoned to get one (he induced the most double plays of all relievers in 2009).
Then there's Brian Wilson, the reincarnation of Mariano Rivera so far. In his 11.2 innings pitched in the 2010 postseason, Wilson was unscored upon, giving up only 5 hits and striking out 16, while saving 6 games. Although he has a flare for the dramatic, he finds a way to get the job done and makes quality pitches when he needs to.
Expect the same lights out bullpen in 2011.

1. Superb Starting Pitching
This should come to no surprise to anyone. Since the end of the Barry Bonds era, the Giants have shifted philosophies. Playing in the wide open spaces of AT&T Park, they realized that a lineup full of sluggers and aging free agents alone will not get the job done.
Hence, the star-studded young starting rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Jonathon Sanchez were born and bred within the Giants organization. Add a former Cy-Young winner in Barry Zito as a fifth starter, and there lies the only starting staff that can match up with the Phillies' "Fantastic Four."
This Giants' elite starting pitchers from 2010, who were third in the major leagues with a 3.54 ERA, will be back for an encore performance in 2011. The 2010 starting pitcher ERA was even skewed with Barry Zito and Todd Wellemeyer's less than stellar 2010 regular season performances. Not to mention, the Giants' starting pitchers led all of baseball with 888 strikeouts and held opponents to just a .236 batting average.
For those who believe the Phillies' starting pitching will be the best in baseball in 2011, consider this: The combined 2010 ERA of Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hammels was 3.45.
As for the Giants, the combined 2010 ERA of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Zito was 3.40. Also, keep in mind that the Giants' 2011 starting pitchers are younger and have all pitched in the World Series with the exception of Zito.



Friday, December 17, 2010

Saltzman Says...Edgar Renteria is overreacting

For a player who was released, Edgar certainly took his time to be offended.  Edgar Renteria, the 2010 World Series MVP, is calling out the Giants for offering him $1 million to come back in a backup role in 2011.  Just 5 weeks ago, he was released by the Giants with a $500K buyout instead of re-signing him for the $10.5 million he could have made in 2011.  Now, Edgar is speaking out about his displeasure with the team.

"That offer from the Giants was a lack of respect. A total disrespect," Renteria told ESPNdeportes.com Thursday from Colombia.

Hey Edgar, look at it as a 3 year, $19 million deal.  With all the injuries he had through the first two seasons, I don't see the offer as too unreasonable.

Edgar made up for an injury plagued two years with one swing

Saltzman Says...2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

My Ballot:
1. Roberto Alomar
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Bert Blyleven
4. Barry Larkin
5. Edgar Martinez
6. Fred McGriff
7. Mark McGwire
8. Rafael Palmeiro
9. Tim Raines
10. Larry Walker


Thursday, December 16, 2010

Saltzman Says... Here is a Bay Area Reality Check

December 16, 2008.  Just two years ago.  Here was the status of our Bay Area Franchises just 730 days ago.

San Francisco Giants:  72-90
  1. 4th in the NL West.   
  2. Bengie Molina led the way with 16 Home Runs.
  3. Matt Cain was 8-14 despite a 3.76 ERA
  4. Barry Zito was 10-17 with a 5.15 ERA and 5 years and $106 million left on his contract.
Oakland A's: 75-86
  1. Ryan Sweeney led the way with a .286 Batting Average
  2. Jack Cust led the way with 77 RBI's (2nd on the team was Bobby Crosby with 61)
  3. Justin Duchscherer led the way with 10 Wins
  4. Huston Street led the way with 18 Saves
San Francisco 49ers: 7-9
  1. Team Fired Mike Nolan in the middle of the season
  2. Isaac Bruce led the way with 61 catches for 835 yards (2nd on the team was Bryant Johnson with 45 for 546)
  3. J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill combined for 19 INT's and 55 sacks.
  4. Vernon Davis only had 31 catches for 358 yards and 2 TD's.
Oakland Raiders: 5-11
  1. Jamarcus Russell was the starting QB
  2. The leading WR was Johnnie Lee Higgins with 22 catches for 366 yards and 4 TD's.
  3. Team was 29th in scoring (263 points)
  4. Team was 24th in points allowed (388 points)
Golden State Warriors:  29-53
  1. Stephen Jackson was the leading scorer with 20.7 PPG
  2. Corey Maggette was the 4th leading scorer.
  3. Al Harrington and Jamal Crawford both complained their way out of town.
  4. Monta Ellis only started 25 games because of an off-season "Moped Accident"
San Jose Sharks: 53-18-11
  1. Lost in the Conference Quarter Finals to the Anaheim Ducks
  2. They lost to the 8th seed, despite having the best record in hockey
  3. Jonathan Cheechoo had 2 points in the post-season, Milan Michalek had 1 point
  4. Evgeni Nabakov's save percentage was .890 in the postseason. (.910 in the regular season)
San Jose Earthquakes:  8-13-9
  1. San Jose was awarded back their franchise after the original team moved to Houston.
  2. Earthquakes finished 7th in the West and did not qualify for the playoffs.
  3. The team now played at Santa Clara University
  4. Landon Donovan was a distant memory, after leading the team until 2004.
San Jose Sabercats: 11-5
  1. Lost Arena Bowl XXII to the Philadelphia Soul.
  2. It was the last game played because the league closed up shop in 2009
--------------------------------------
TWO YEARS LATER...

  • The 2010 San Francisco Giants won the World Series.
  • The Oakland A's won 81 games, 51 of which came from their 4 young pitchers which included Dallas Braden's perfect game on Mother's Day.
  • The San Francisco 49ers are in the playoff race for the first time since 2002
  • The Oakland Raiders are in the playoff race for the first time since 2002
  • The Golden State Warriors have new ownership and a young nucleus of Stephen Curry and co.
  • San Jose Sharks are coming off their 1st ever trip to the Conference Finals, losing to the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks...and now we have their goalie.
  • The San Jose Earthquakes qualified for the playoffs for the 1st time since coming back and upset the #1 seed in the Conference.
  • The San Jose Sabercats are back.

        Friday, December 10, 2010

        Saltzman Says... 2011 Giant Aaron Rowand?

        Will Aaron Rowand be a San Francisco Giant next year?


        Aaron Rowand is not in the plans for 2011.  At least, not unless he does a 180 degree turnaround from the end of last season.

        Andre Torres is going into Spring Training as the starting center fielder.  If Rowand forces his way into the lineup, Torres would start in left.

        We could use a trade partner that has money to spend and a player to unload.

        Here are the most likely scenarios:

        Phillies:  Raul Ibanez
        Both of Rowand's former teams might be interested in bringing the center fielder back.  With Jayson Werth gone and Raul Ibanez struggling last year in Philly, The Phillies might be interested in bringing back their former 30 home run CF.  They might be hesitant to give up Ibanez, but his struggles were in a hitter friendly park, wheras Rowand's were at AT&T.  Rowand had great success as a Philly.

        We get a left handed bat to play LF and allow Burrell and DeRosa to be on our bench.  If Ibanez continues to struggle, we have the depth to move guys around.  Ibanez's contract is one year shorter too, so we could wipe both contracts off the books for 2012.


        White Sox:  Carlos Quentin
        The Sox have an expensive pair of outfielders in Juan Pierre and Alex Rios, but both were productive last year.  Adam Dunn has been brought in and Paul Konerko was brought back, so the team's power will not be an issue next year either.  Andruw Jones, another OF option for Chicago had 19 HR's.

        Carlos Quentin could be the odd man out in that mix seeing is how he hit .243 after hitting .236 the year prior.  He is two years removed from hitting .288 and he could start to get expensive in arbitration with his power numbers.  They might not have room for a long term deal with him, so bringing back Rowand could make some sense.  Rowand gives them a upgrade on defense, and a capable bat when he was a Sox everyday center fielder.  It also allows them to dump a lot of salary over the next two years in Pierre and Rowand.

        We get a younger OF we could team with Huff and Ross who has 83 home runs over the last three years and went to college at Stanford.  A homecoming might be just what he needs to get his average back closer to .280 than .230.

        Mets:   Carlos Beltran
        Carlos Beltran makes more money a year than Aaron Rowand, but Aaron Rowand is owed more money.  Beltran's $18.5 million he is owed is all next year, whereas the $24 million for Rowand is over the next two years.  Sandy Alderson, the Mets new GM, has been told to penny pinch.  If they save $6.5 million this year swapping the two CF's, they might be in better shape next year to deal with Rowand's $12 million.  If not, the Mets do have the kind of money to release Rowand if he has a poor 2011.  Beltran is a risk because of his current injury history, but when healthy, he is an absolute force.

        Updated: 12/17/10 4:10pm
        Cubs:   Kosuke Fukudome
        The Giants and Cubs have been in preliminary talks about a bad contract swap, similar to the one they pulled off last year sending Milton Bradley to Seattle for Carlos Silva.  With how much luck Jim Hendry had pulling off that gem, he might be willing to move Fukudome for a reliable glove and right handed bat.  If the Giants were willing to eat some of the 2012 contract of Rowand's, this deal might work.

        Thursday, December 9, 2010

        Saltzman Says... Giants Depth Chart (Rule 5 Edition)

        San Francisco's Updated Organizational Depth Chart:

        Catchers:
        C Buster Posey (ML) {league minimum}
        C Eli Whiteside (ML) {league minimum}
        C Jackson Williams (AAA)
        C Aaron Lowenstein (AA)
        C Eliezer Zambrano (AA)
        C Tyler LaTorre (AA)
        C Nestor Rojas (AA)
        C Johnny Monell (Hi A)
        C Tommy Joseph (Lo A)
        ----------
        First Baseman:
        1B: Aubrey Huff (ML) {re-signed for 2 years, $22 million}
        1B Travis Ishikawa (ML) {league minimum}
        1B Brandon Belt (AAA)
        1B Brett Pill (AAA)
        1B Andy D'Alessio (AA)
        1B Michael Ambort (Hi A)
        1B Josh Mazzola (Hi A)
        1B Rafael Rodriguez (R)
        ---------- 
        Second Baseman:
        2B Freddy Sanchez (ML) {will make $6 million in 2011}
        2B Mike Fontenot (ML) {will make $1 million in 2011}
        2B Nick Noonan (AA)
        2B Brock Bond (AA)
        2B Ryan Lormand (AA)
        2B Charlie Culberson (Hi A)
        ---------- 
        Third Baseman:
        3B Pablo Sandoval (ML) {league minimum}
        3B Ryan Rohlinger (Call Up)
        3B Conor Gillespie (40 Man)
        3B Brad Boyer (AA)
        3B Joel Weeks (Hi A)
        3B Drew Biery (Hi A)
        3B Chris Dominguez (Lo A)
        ---------- 
        Shortstops:
        SS Miguel Tejada {will make $6.5 million in 2011}
        SS Manny Burris (Call Up)
        SS Brandon Crawford (AAA)
        SS Ehire Adrianza (40 Man)
        ---------- 
        Outfielders:
        OF Cody Ross (ML) {offered arbitration}
        OF Andres Torres (ML) {offered arbitration}
        OF Pat Burrell (ML) {re-signed for $1 million in 2011}
        OF Mark DeRosa (ML) {will make $6 million in 2011}
        OF Aaron Rowand (ML) {2 more years for $24 million}
        OF Nate Schierholtz (ML) {league minimum}
        OF Darren Ford (Call Up)
        OF Thomas Neal (40 Man)
        OF Mike McBride (AAA)
        OF Tyler Graham (AAA)
        OF Ben Copeland (AAA)
        OF Roger Kieschnick (AA)
        OF Francisco Peguero (40 Man)
        OF Wendell Fairley (Hi A)
        OF Juan Perez (Hi A)
        OF James Simmons (Hi A)
        ---------- 
        Designated Hitters:
        DH Jose Flores (Hi A) 
        ---------- 
        Right Handed Pitchers:
        RHP Tim Lincecum (ML) {will make $13 million in 2011}
        RHP Matt Cain (ML) {will make $7 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012}
        RHP Brian Wilson (ML) {will make $6.5 million in 2011, $8.5 million in 2012}
        RHP Sergio Romo (ML) {league minimum}
        RHP Santiago Casilla (ML) {offered arbitration}
        RHP Ramon Ramirez (ML) {offered arbitration}
        RHP Steve Edlefson (40 Man)
        RHP Henry Sosa (40 Man)
        RHP David Mixon (AA)
        RHP Craig Westcott (AA)
        RHP Mitch Lively (AA)
        RHP Jose Casilla (40 Man)
        RHP Daryl Maday (AA)
        RHP Adrian Martin (AA)
        RHP Felix Romero (AA)
        RHP Oliver Odle (Hi A)
        RHP Justin Fitzgerald (Hi A)
        RHP Edwin Quirarte (Hi A)
        RHP Jason Stoffel (Hi A)
        RHP Ben Wilshire (Hi A)
        RHP Kyle Woodruff (Hi A)
        RHP Brian Anderson (Hi A)
        RHP Hector Correa (Hi A)
        RHP Eric Stolp (Hi A)
        RHP Zach Wheeler (Lo A)
        ----------
        Left Handed Pitchers:
        LHP Jeremy Affeldt (ML) {will make $4.5 million in 2011}
        LHP Madison Bumgarner (ML) {league minimum}
        LHP Jonathan Sanchez (ML) {offered arbitration}
        LHP Javier Lopez (ML) {offered arbitration}
        LHP Dan Runzler (ML) {league minimum}
        LHP Barry Zito (ML) {3 more years for $57.5 million}
        LHP Alex Hinshaw (40 Man)
        LHP Clayton Tanner (40 Man)
        LHP Matt Yourkin (AAA)
        LHP David Quinowski (AA)
        LHP Kelvin Marte (Hi A)
        LHP Wilmin Rodriguez (Hi A)
        LHP Ryan Verdugo (Hi A)

        San Francisco's Free Agents:
        C: Steve Holm (AAA)
        C: Guillermo Rodriguez (AAA)
        1B: Jesus Guzman (AAA) (Padres)
        1B: Michael Sandoval (Hi A)
        2B: Derin McMains (AAA)
        3B: Juan Uribe (ML) (Dodgers) {will be awarded a 2011 draft pick as compensation}
        3B: Jacob Blackwood (AA) (Padres)
        SS: Edgar Renteria (ML)
        SS Juan Ciriaco (AA)
        SS Sharlon Schoop (AA)
        OF: Jose Guillen (ML)
        OF Eugenio Velez (Call Up) (Dodgers)
        OF Joe Borchard (AAA)
        OF Clay Timpner (AA) 
        RHP: Guillermo Mota (ML)
        RHP Chris Ray (ML)

        RHP: Eric Hacker (AAA) (Twins)
        RHP Rafael Cova (AA)
        RHP Matt Kinney (AAA)
        RHP Mike MacDonald (AA)
        RHP Osiris Matos (AAA)
        RHP Scott Nestor (Lo A)
        RHP Tony Pena Jr. (AAA) (Red Sox)
        RHP Ronnie Ray (AA)
        LHP: Geno Espineli (AAA) (Rockies)
        LHP Joe Paterson (AAA) (D'Backs)
        LHP Horacio Ramirez (AAA)
        LHP Andy Sisco (AA)
        LHP Jake Stevens (AA)
        LHP Dontrelle Willis (AAA) (Reds)

        Monday, December 6, 2010

        Saltzman Says... Can You Name the Opening Day Lineups?

        Opening Day Lineups 1991-2010

        Can you name the San Francisco Giants Opening Day Lineups 1-9 from '91-'10? 

        Source: Baseball Reference

        Saltzman Says... When Making a Splash Goes Wrong

        Barry Bonds was the last big free agent signing that worked out for the San Francisco Giants.  Stealing the future 40/40 man away from Pittsburgh, he won 5 MVP's and took us to the 2002 World Series, as well as help sell 3 million tickets a year every year at The Phone Company Park.

        That's it.  No other big signings have worked out.  Not Ray Durham, or Edgardo Alfonso, or Matt Morris, or Barry Zito, or Aaron Rowand or Edgar Renteria.

        The last three did help us win a World Series in 2010, but with the exception of Renteria's final week, it was $204 million too much money ($126 million + $60 million + $18 million.)  

        It wasn't even that we picked the wrong players.  It just doesn't make sense to spend big in free agency.  The market is never deep, and it forces teams to outbid each other.  Jayson Werth just signed the same contract aas Barry Zito did in 2007 with the lowly Washington Nationals.  Seven years for $126 million.  This means that Carl Crawford, another outstanding outfielder, should end up expecting more years and more money because he is younger.  Adrian Gonzalez, recently traded to the Boston Red Sox, will be a free agent next year, and is looking for an extension from the Sox similar to the 8 year $180 million Mark Teixiera got from the mighty dollar New York Yankees.  Big market teams drive up the comparable prices for free agents, which in turn forces smaller market teams to overpay free agents even more.  That is how Zito and Rowand came to the Bondsless Giants in the first place.

        Players need something to prove to play up to their potential.  It is not always money related, but it usually is.  Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe were playing last year on one year deals.  They were not offered any more money or years than that from 29 other teams.  Huff wanted to prove he could play 1st base and could still hit for power.  Uribe wanted to prove he was worth a multi-year contract.  Freddy Sanchez was coming off an injury plagued season with the Pirates and Giants and was out to prove he was worth the two year contract the Giants still gave him despite the injuries.  Pat Burrell, released from an $18 million contract by the Tampa Bay Rays, was out to prove he could still play everyday.  Cody Ross was let go by the Marlins and Florida did not want anything in return for the outfielder who hit 24 home runs for them the previous year.  Andres Torres had never been an everyday player, and was looking to prove he was worth something going into his first year of salary arbitration.  Edgar Renteria was out to prove he was worth the $18 million the team gave him and that he could play despite several different nagging injuries.  Every single everyday player for the Giants was out to prove something.

        What will Jayson Werth be out to prove.  If he starts the year hitting .220 with no home runs, he will still make over $100 million in the final 6 years of his contract.  What is the motivation there?

        Multi-year deals are not a bad thing, but when a player is making 8 figures a year over five or more years, what will drive the player to be great every day? Not too many players who sign contracts for 5 years, $50 million or more in baseball live up to the money.

        Some of the worst:
        • Barry Zito
        • Aaron Rowand
        • Vernon Wells
        • Juan Pierre
        • Gary Matthews Jr.
        • Carlos Lee
        • Alfonso Soriano
        • Chan Ho Park
        • Mike Hampton
        • Darren Driefort
        • Jason Giambi
        • Kevin Brown

        Friday, December 3, 2010

        Saltzman Says... Another Giants Depth Chart (12/3/10 Edition)

        San Francisco's Updated Organizational Depth Chart:

        Catchers:
        C Buster Posey (ML) {league minimum}
        C Eli Whiteside (ML) {league minimum}
        C Jackson Williams (AAA)
        C Aaron Lowenstein (AA)
        C Eliezer Zambrano (AA)
        C Johnny Monell (Hi A)
        C Tommy Joseph (Lo A)
        ----------
        First Baseman:
        1B: Aubrey Huff (ML) {re-signed for 2 years, $22 million}
        1B Travis Ishikawa (ML) {league minimum}
        1B Brandon Belt (AAA)
        1B Michael Ambort (Hi A)
        1B Josh Mazzola (Hi A)
        1B Rafael Rodriguez (R)
        ---------- 
        Second Baseman:
        2B Freddy Sanchez (ML) {1 more year for $6 million}
        2B Mike Fontenot (ML) {made $1 million in 2010}
        2B Nick Noonan (AA)
        2B Brock Bond (AA)
        2B Charlie Culberson (Hi A)
        ---------- 
        Third Baseman:
        3B Pablo Sandoval (ML) {league minimum}
        3B Ryan Rohlinger (Call Up)
        3B Conor Gillespie (40 Man)
        3B Drew Biery (Hi A)
        3B Chris Dominguez (Lo A)
        ---------- 
        Shortstops:
        SS Miguel Tejada {signed for 1 year $6.5 million}
        SS Manny Burris (Call Up)
        SS Brandon Crawford (AAA)
        SS Ehire Adrianza (40 Man)
        ---------- 
        Outfielders:
        OF Cody Ross (ML) {made $4.45 million in 2010}
        OF Andres Torres (ML) {made $0.426 million in 2010}
        OF Mark DeRosa (ML) {1 more year for $6 million}
        OF Aaron Rowand (ML) {2 more years for $24 million}
        OF Nate Schierholtz (ML) {league minimum}
        OF Darren Ford (Call Up)
        OF Thomas Neal (40 Man)
        OF Roger Kieschnick (AA)
        OF Francisco Peguero (40 Man)
        OF Wendell Fairley (Hi A)
        OF Juan Perez (Hi A)
        ---------- 
        Designated Hitters:
        DH Jose Flores (Hi A) 
        ---------- 
        Right Handed Pitchers:
        RHP Tim Lincecum (ML) {will make $13 million in 2011}
        RHP Matt Cain (ML) {will make $7 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012}
        RHP Brian Wilson (ML) {will make $6.5 million in 2011, $8.5 million in 2012}
        RHP Sergio Romo (ML) {league minimum}
        RHP Santiago Casilla (ML) {made $0.400 million in 2010}
        RHP Ramon Ramirez (ML) {made $1.155 million in 2010}
        RHP Steve Edlefson (40 Man)
        RHP Henry Sosa (40 Man)
        RHP Michael Main (AA)
        RHP David Mixon (AA)
        RHP Craig Westcott (AA)
        RHP Mitch Lively (AA)
        RHP Jose Casilla (40 Man)
        RHP Oliver Odle (Hi A)
        RHP Justin Fitzgerald (Hi A)
        RHP Edwin Quirarte (Hi A)
        RHP Jason Stoffel (Hi A)
        RHP Ben Wilshire (Hi A)
        RHP Kyle Woodruff (Hi A)
        RHP Zach Wheeler (Lo A)
        ----------
        Left Handed Pitchers:
        LHP Jeremy Affeldt (ML) {1 more year for $4.5 million}
        LHP Madison Bumgarner (ML) {league minimum}
        LHP Jonathan Sanchez (ML) {made $2.1 million in 2010}
        LHP Javier Lopez (ML) {made $0.775 million in 2010}
        LHP Dan Runzler (ML) {league minimum}
        LHP Barry Zito (ML) {3 more years for $57.5 million}
        LHP Alex Hinshaw (40 Man)
        LHP Joe Paterson (AAA)
        LHP Clayton Tanner (40 Man)
        LHP David Quinowski (AA)
        LHP Kelvin Marte (Hi A)
        LHP Wilmin Rodriguez (Hi A)
        LHP Ryan Verdugo (Hi A)


        San Francisco Offered Arbitration:
        3B: Juan Uribe (ML) (Dodgers) {will be awarded a 2011 draft pick as compensation}

        San Francisco's Rule 5 Eligible Players:
        1B Brett Pill (AAA)
        1B Andy D'Alessio (AA)
        2B Ryan Lormand (AA)
        C Tyler LaTorre (AA)
        C Nestor Rojas (AA)
        3B Brad Boyer (AA)
        3B Joel Weeks (Hi A)
        OF Mike McBride (AAA)
        OF Tyler Graham (AAA)
        OF Ben Copeland (AAA)
        OF James Simmons (Hi A)
        RHP Daryl Maday (AA)
        RHP Adrian Martin (AA)
        RHP Felix Romero (AA)
        RHP Brian Anderson (Hi A)
        RHP Hector Correa (Hi A)
        RHP Eric Stolp (Hi A)
        LHP Matt Yourkin (AAA)


        San Francisco's Free Agents:
        C: Steve Holm (AAA)
        C: Guillermo Rodriguez (AAA)
        1B: Jesus Guzman (AAA) (Padres)
        1B: Michael Sandoval (Hi A)
        2B: Derin McMains (AAA)
        SS: Edgar Renteria (ML)
        SS Juan Ciriaco (AA)
        SS Sharlon Schoop (AA)
        OF: Pat Burrell (ML)
        OF: Jose Guillen (ML)
        OF Eugenio Velez (Call Up)
        OF Joe Borchard (AAA)
        OF Clay Timpner (AA) 
        RHP: Guillermo Mota (ML)
        RHP Chris Ray (ML)

        RHP: Eric Hacker (AAA) (Twins)
        RHP: Waldis Joaquin (AAA)
        RHP Rafael Cova (AA)
        RHP Matt Kinney (AAA)
        RHP Mike MacDonald (AA)
        RHP Osiris Matos (AAA)
        RHP Scott Nestor (Lo A)
        RHP Tony Pena Jr. (AAA)
        RHP Ronnie Ray (AA)
        LHP: Geno Espineli (AAA)
        LHP Horacio Ramirez (AAA)
        LHP Andy Sisco (AA)
        LHP Jake Stevens (AA)
        LHP Dontrelle Willis (AAA) (Reds)

        Saltzman Says... Mike Fontenot Re-Signed, Ray & Velez gone

        Giants offer arbitration to all but 2

        Saltzman Says...

        Facts:
        Mike Fontenot re-signed for a little over $1 million.

        Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez were all offered salary arbitration.

        Chris Ray and Eugenio Velez were not.

        What all this means...
        Mike Fontenot is coming back.

        Ross, Torres, Sanchez, Casilla, Lopez and Ramirez will be as well.  The question is: Does something get done before arbitration?  The answer will almost assuredly be yes.

        Brian Sabean's track record is he doesn't like to take a case to an arbitrator because of how negative the back and forth become with the team and the agent.

        Giants who have avoided arbitration over the last 6 years
        • Jonathan Sanchez
        • Brian Wilson
        • Tim Lincecum
        • Brandon Medders
        • Jack Taschner
        • Brad Hennessey
        • Kevin Correia
        • Jim Brower
        • Pedro Feliz
        What About Ray and Velez?...
        Chris Ray and Eugenio Velez become free agents who could be brought back to minor league deals if nobody brings them in.  Ray should have an easier time finding a home being a former closer.  Velez could end up back in Fresno to fill out the Grizzlies roster.  General Manager Brian Sabean said Dan Runzler had the edge over Ray to make the 2011 Opening Day Roster and Velez would not be able to make the Opening Day Roster.

        Thursday, December 2, 2010

        Chris Haft: Giants face tough choices on contract tenders

        Giants face tough choices on contract tenders

         
        SAN FRANCISCO -- This offseason's salary-arbitration process might prompt Giants officials to scrape some of the ornate gold leaf off the dome of downtown's City Hall.
         
        Club management will need every dollar it can muster to pay its arbitration-eligible players, a whopping group of eight.

        This contingent includes outfielders Andres Torres and Cody Ross, left-handers Javier Lopez and Jonathan Sanchez, right-handers Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez and Chris Ray and infielder Mike Fontenot.
         
        The Giants must announce by 9 p.m. PT Thursday whether any of these players will not be tendered a contract. Non-tendered players will become free agents, though their former club remains able to sign them.
        Traditionally, arbitration-eligible players reap the benefits of their status. The 128 players who filed for arbitration last offseason received average pay increases of 107 percent.
         
        Among San Francisco's arbitration-eligibles, half earned seven-figure salaries in 2010: Ross ($4.45 million), Sanchez ($2.1 million), Ramirez ($1.155 million) and Fontenot ($1 million). The remainder consists of Ray ($975,000), Lopez ($775,000), Torres ($426,000) and Casilla ($400,000).
         
        The cumulative increases could tax the Giants' budget. San Francisco's payroll appears guaranteed to soar past approximately $95 million to more than $110 million. Thus it would behoove the Giants to avoid arbitration with as many players as possible by negotiating one-year deals or multiyear contracts that control pay hikes or non-tendering one or two individuals at the risk of losing them on the open market.
         
        Based on performance and overall value, Torres, Ross, Lopez, Sanchez, Casilla and Ramirez almost surely will be tendered contracts.
         
        Torres (.268 batting average, 16 home runs, 63 RBIs, 26 stolen bases) claimed the center field/leadoff role early in the season and won the Willie Mac Award as the most inspirational Giant. Ross accumulated pedestrian regular-season statistics (.269, 14 homers, 65 RBIs) but hit .294 with five home runs and 10 RBIs in 15 postseason games and was named Most Valuable Player of the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia.
         
        Sanchez (13-9, 3.07 ERA) endured inconsistency but established himself as a legitimate starter by striking out 205 in 193 1/3 innings and limiting opponents to a Major League-low .204 batting average. Lopez was solid in the regular season (4-2, 2.34 in 77 games with the Giants and Pittsburgh) and sparkled in the postseason as left-handed batters went 1-for-13 off him with six strikeouts. Casilla (7-2, 1.95 ERA in 52 games) stranded 41 of 47 inherited baserunners. Ramirez recorded a 0.67 ERA in 25 appearances after joining the Giants from Boston in a July 31 trade.
         
        Less certain is the status of Ray (5-0, 3.72 ERA in 63 games with Texas and San Francisco), who pitched capably but didn't make the postseason roster, and Fontenot (.283 in 103 games with the Cubs and Giants), a utility man who's handy...
         
        General manager Brian Sabean, who indicated as the offseason began that he'd tender contracts to each arbitration-eligible Giant, has backed off that stance since then, likely due to the payroll's imminent expansion.
        "I can't tell you that we'll tender all of them or arbitrate with all of them," Sabean said.

        The payroll increase can be traced partly to first baseman Aubrey Huff and shortstop Miguel Tejada. Huff will receive $10 million in the first year of his two-year contract after earning $3 million in 2010. Tejada, whose signing is expected to be made official Thursday, reportedly will get $6.5 million.

        Chris Haft is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

        Saltzman Says... Giants Re-Sign Pat Burrell

        Last Updated: 12/3/10 8:05am

        San Francisco's Updated 40 Man Roster:

        Catchers:
        1. C Buster Posey (ML)
        2. C Eli Whiteside (ML)
        ----------
        First Baseman:
        3. 1B: Aubrey Huff (ML) 
        4. 1B Travis Ishikawa (ML)

        ---------- 
        Second Baseman:
        5. 2B Freddy Sanchez (ML)
        6. 2B Mike Fontenot (ML)
        ---------- 
        Third Baseman:
        7. 3B Pablo Sandoval (ML)
        8. 3B Ryan Rohlinger (40 Man)
        9. 3B Conor Gillespie (40 Man)

        ---------- 
        Shortstops:
        10. SS Miguel Tejada (ML)
        11. SS Manny Burris (40 Man)
        12. SS Ehire Adrianza (40 Man)
        ---------- 
        Outfielders:
        13. OF Cody Ross (ML)
        14. OF Andres Torres (ML)
        15. OF Pat Burrell (ML)
        16. OF Mark DeRosa (ML)
        17. OF Aaron Rowand (ML)
        18. OF Nate Schierholtz (ML)
        19. OF Darren Ford (40 Man)
        20. OF Thomas Neal (40 Man)
        21. OF Francisco Peguero (40 Man)
        ---------- 
        Right Handed Pitchers:
        22. RHP Tim Lincecum (ML)
        23. RHP Matt Cain (ML)
        24. RHP Brian Wilson (ML)
        25. RHP Sergio Romo (ML)
        26. RHP Santiago Casilla (ML)
        27. RHP Ramon Ramirez (ML)
        28. RHP Steve Edlefson (40 Man)
        29. RHP Henry Sosa (40 Man)
        30. RHP Jose Casilla (40 Man)
        ----------
        Left Handed Pitchers:
        31. LHP Jonathan Sanchez (ML)
        32. LHP Madison Bumgarner (ML)
        33. LHP Javier Lopez (ML)

        34. LHP Jeremy Affeldt (ML)
        35. LHP Barry Zito (ML)
        36. LHP Dan Runzler (ML) 

        37. LHP Alex Hinshaw (40 Man)
        38. LHP Clayton Tanner (40 Man)


        Saltzman Says: Top 25 Prospects (San Francisco Giants)

        2011 Top 25 Prospects (2010 Rankings):
        1. (NR) Brandon Belt
        2. (3) Zack Wheeler
        3. (4) Thomas Neal
        4. (20) Chris Dominguez
        5. (5) Rafael Rodriguez
        6. (19) Ehire Adrianza
        7. (23) Jose Casilla
        8. (40) Charlie Culberson
        9. (8) Tommy Joseph
        10. (10) Francisco Peguero
        11. (6) Brandon Crawford
        12. (27) Steve Edelfsen
        13. (17) Darren Ford 
        14. (16) Clayton Tanner
        15. (7) Roger Kieschnick
        16. (9) Nick Noonan
        17. (11) Hector Sanchez
        18. (12) Edward Concepcion
        19. (15) Jason Stoffel
        20. (18) Conor Gillaspie
        21. (22) Henry Sosa
        22. (29) Joe Paterson
        23. (30) Brock Bond
        24. (36) Eric Surkamp
        25. (39) Wendell Fairley

        When the Giants Come to Town: Miggy T is a Giant & Pat the Bat is Back

        Miggy T Is a Giant and Pat the Bat Is Back
        Man, the shortstop market sure revved up to warp speed after the Dodgers signed Juan Uribe. Next domino was Ned trading Theriot to St Louis for Blake Hawksworth. Blake Hawksworth? Didn't the Dodgers bullpen just get WEAKER with the addtion of Blake Hawksworth? Rumors had the Giants in on Jason Bartlett, but then it looked like the O's were starting a bidding war and Sabes must have said, "No bidding war, we're outa here!" which is exactly what he should have said!

        I really like the Miggy T signing. Maybe a slight overpay but.....

        1 year contract. Check!

        No prospects given up. Check!

        Great clubhouse guy. Check!

        Popular in the local community. Check!

        Tejada might not hit as many HR's as Uribe did last year, but he will hit for a higher average and will hit a few dingers too. Does not have great range, but is surehanded. Giants pitching gets a lot of K's and has strong flyball tendencies, so the defensive limitations will account for a very small number of extra runs allowed. If it doesn't work out, hey, they are only out 1 year's worth of salary. If Crawford or Adrianza come on like gangbusters, he won't be blocking them next year.

        Sounds like Pat the Bat is coming back on a "discounted" 1 year deal. Again, very little risk in a 1 year deal. If used like Bochy used him last year, taking him out after his 3'rd or 4'th AB if the Giants had a lead, he could easily contribute 30 HR's while limiting his defensive liability in the field. Besides, I thought he played OK D in LF last year. The number of runs he allowed above a defensive LF was a very small number.

        Next on Sabean's offseason list: Decide which of the arbitration eligible guys to tender contracts too. I'm guessing the discussions Sabes had with Fontenot's agent(who also happens to be Jeter's agent) was to try to work out a contract before the arbitration deadline because Sabes doesn't want to risk arbitration.

        After the tender deadline, I think the Giants offseason is done.

        Saltzman Says... A look at our 25 man Roster

        Last Updated: 12/2/10 10:26am

        Opening Day Lineup
        1. CF Andres Torres
        2. 2B Freddy Sanchez
        3. 1B Aubrey Huff
        4. C Buster Posey
        5. RF Cody Ross
        6. SS Miguel Tejada 
        7. LF Pat Burrell
        8. 3B Pablo Sandoval
        --------
        Bench
        9. C Eli Whiteside
        10. 1B Travis Ishikawa
        11. 2B Mike Fontenot
        12. IF/OF Mark DeRosa
        13. CF Aaron Rowand
        14. RF Nate Schierholtz
        --------
        Rotation
        15. Tim Lincecum
        16. Matt Cain
        17. Jonathan Sanchez
        18. Madison Bumgarner
        19. Barry Zito
        --------
        Bullpen
        20. Jeremy Affeldt
        21. Ramon Ramirez
        22. Javier Lopez
        23. Sergio Romo
        24. Santiago Casilla
        25. Brian Wilson

        Wednesday, December 1, 2010

        FANGRAPHS: Tejada to The Other Part of The Bay

        Tejada to The Other Part of The Bay

        When the Giants Come to Town: #3 Zach Wheeler

        Down on the Farm: 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospect Review- #3 Zack Wheeler

        #3 Zack Wheeler. Low A 3-3, 3.99, 58.2 IP, 38 BB, 70 K's, GO/AO= 2.61.

        As OGC has pointed out, players drafted in the top 10 of the first round have a much greater chance of becoming star, or impact, players than players drafted later. Actually, the odds are even better for a top 5 pick. The chances of success drop off exponentially from about pick 5 on. Unless you are the Yankees, pretty much all teams go through up and down cycles and a lot of that has to do with the draft. Teams doing well draft later and their farm systems tend to fade in the ensuing years. When a team hits a down cycle and gets a high pick or two, it is imperative that they make the most of it. Even top 5 picks are not slam dunks to become stars.

        The Giants went through one of these down cycles starting in 2005 and the "reward" was a series of top 10 picks starting in 2006. Fortunately for us Giants fans, the Giants have been historically successful during this run. Tim Lincecum! Madison Bumgarner! Buster Posey! Zack Wheeler was the last of these top 10 picks taken 6'th overall in the 2009 draft. Zack Wheeler has a lot to live up to! Naturally, Giants fans might have gotten the idea that first round draft picks just waltz into the majors within 2 years of being drafted, which might be why not a few Giants fans seem to think that Wheeler's first professional season was a disappointment and his stock is down.

        Wheeler's 2010 season for Low A Augusta started out with some extreme wildness in his first game. He continued to walk more batters than you'd like to see, but he really settled down quickly and then got progressively stronger as the year went along, interrupted by about a 6 week layoff for a torn fingernail. Let's take a closer look at the numbers:

        K/9=10.71. This is an excellent number and indicative of superior stuff.

        GO/AO= 2.61. Also an excellent number. It's not all that unusual for a young pitcher to get a lot of K's or for a young pitcher to get a lot of ground ball outs. What is unusual is for a young pitcher to do both! Remember "King Felix" Hernandez? What got everybody so excited was his ability to get both K's and GB's, a rare, deadly combination.

        ERA Splits: April- 6.23. May- 3.95. July- 2.70. August- 2.66. Notice the improvement each month! I put a lot of stock in Prospects showing improvement as a season progresses. The difference between improvement over the course of the season and starting out hot with later regression cannot be overstated.

        When ranking prospects, one has to consider both eventual ceiling and proximity to the majors. Obviously, a player closer to the majors is more likely reach his ceiling, whatever that ceiling is, than a player in the lower minors. I tend to weigh eventual ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. That creates a dilemma when comparing players like Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was the highest ranking prospect in the Giants system last year who has not graduated to the majors. Despite the early wildness and the injury, Wheeler did nothing to diminish his eventual ceiling as a prospect. The injury was not to his arm, and if anything his secondary stats suggest that his ceiling may be even higher than we thought when he was drafted. The question then, really, is not whether Wheeler stock has decreased, but whether Belt's stock rose so much that he surpassed Wheeler. I still think that Wheeler has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the Giants system, but Belt's ceiling is pretty sweet too, and Belt could be in the majors as soon at 2011 while Wheeler obviously has a way to go, leaving him open to injuries or regression. In my mind, it's a close call. Stay tuned!

        How would you rank Zack Wheeler in relation to Brandon Belt?

        When the Giants Come to Town: #2 Madison Bumgarner

        Down on the Farm: 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospect Review- #2 Madison Bumgarner

        #2 Madison Bumgarner: AAA 7-1, 3.16, 82.2 IP, 22 BB, 59 K's MLB 7-6, 3.00, 111 IP, 26 BB, 86 K's.
        Postseason 2-0, 2.18, 20.2 IP, 5 BB, 18 K's.

        Madison Bumgarner was the Giants first, first round pick in 2007, #10 overall. I wasn't happy with the pick. At the time, the Giants organization was desperate for hitters. I was stumping for either Beau Mills or Jason Heyward. Mills, obviously, would have been a mistake. It's a close call whether they Giants are better off with MadBum or Heyward, but as things stand now, I'm not at all sorry they took Bumgarner. For one thing, it's very doubtful that the Giants would have gotten through the postseason without MadBum even it they had Heyward instead, so I'll trade whatever happens in the future for this one partial season of Bumgarner any day.

        In 2008, Bumgarner had possibly the best season any pitching prospect has ever had pitching for low A Augusta: 15-3, 1.46, 141.2 IP, 21 BB, 164 K's. He reportedly was working with a fastball that ran in the mid 90's with impeccable command on both sides of the plate. His secondary stuff was reported to be raw, but he was working on it.

        He started off 2009 in San Jose and in 5 games put up similar numbers: 3-1, 1.48, 24.1 IP, 4 BB, 23 K's. He was promoted to AA Connecticut where he dominated in his first start, but then something didn't seem right. His K rate went way down and his walk rate went way up. The results were still good: 9-1, 1.93, 107 IP, 30 BB, 69 K's. For prospect watchers, though, the secondary stats were cause for concern. He came up to SF in September and got into 4 games including one start that went reasonably well: 0-0, 1.80, 10 IP, 3 BB, 10 K's. To the surprise and dismay of a lot of Giants fans, the velocity on his fastball was only 88-90 mph, although he appeared to have more advanced secondary stuff than what we had been led to believe. The difference in velocity, though, was the difference between a good pitcher and a potential ace and one couldn't help be feel some disappointment as well as concern over what caused the velocity drop. The official explanation from the Giants was a mechanical flaw that could be easily worked out.

        Bumgarner came to spring training in 2010 amid much anticipation and some anxiety over his velocity. It was still down and got lit up. He was sent down to Fresno amid comments from Brian Sabean about getting married in the offseason and being out of shape. He got shelled in his first two starts for Fresno and full scale panic had set in. His stat lines in Fresno started improving. When Todd Wellemeyer went down with an injury, MadBum got the call. His velocity was better at 90-92 mph on the fastball and his secondary stuff was much better. He got progressively stronger as the season went along and made several really clutch starts down the stretch. By the end of the season, his fastball velocity has climbed back to the 92-94 MPH range, but could still be inconsistent, especially later in games.

        The lingering memory of Madison Bumgarner's rookie season couldn't be much better. The postseason performance was outstanding. In Game 4 of the World Series, it was downright dominating against a righthanded heavy Texas Rangers lineup. He was still coming at them with 94 MPH darts on the corners of the plate through 8 innings before Bruce Bochy wisely let Brian Wilson finish it off. Possibly even more impressive, though was his clutch performance out of the bullpen in the NLCS going 2 IP, against the best that Philadelphia had to offer. His velocity was a bit off at 90-92 and he got into trouble both innings, but kept his cool and pitched his way out of it both times. In one of the innings, when a runner reached 3B with only 1 out, Bum told Aubrey Huff not to worry, he would strike out the next batter and get the next batter after that out and the Giants would be out of the inning. He did just that!

        Madison Bumgarner can be a very good major league pitcher with ordinary velocity. If he can maintain a fastball in the 92-94 range with his command and secondary stuff, he can be a dominant ace. He's crazy big and already has impeccable command, something that is very rare in a hard throwing LHP. What excites me the most about MadBum, though, is his attitude. This kid may look like a country bumpkin out there, but behind that facade is a deadly competitor. Bum's quietness is different than Matt Cain's. Cain is just unflappable and incredibly determined. Bumgarner has, as Bruce Springsteen would say, the cold hard look of a cobra! This guy isn't just determined to win, he's determined to destroy his opponents. He will be a Giant for at least the next 6 seasons. By the end of that time, assuming no major injuries, he could very well be the #1 starter on the team, if not in all of baseball. The Giants are very fortunate to have Madison Bumgarner!

        Again, graduation takes him off the 2011 prospect list, but how much better is it to have him pitching for the Giants?

        PS: I'm still not sure what caused the mysterious drop in velocity. It may be multiple factors. He was clearly working on secondary stuff and may have unconsciously been gripping the fastball a bit tighter. The fact that he progressively gained velocity as the season went on, combined with reports of him running in the stands with Matt Cain between starts tends to lend credence to the deconditioning theory. It will be something interesting to watch going forward. Again, with his command and rapidly improving secondary stuff, he can be a good pitcher without the velocity. With the velocity, though, he can be an ace!

        When the Giants Come to Town: #1 Buster Posey

        Down on the Farm: 2010 Giants Top 50 Prospect Review- #1 Buster Posey

        Kicking off our rundown of LAST YEAR'S Top 50 Giants Prospects, we'll start off at the top, the easy ones first. The mission of a farm system is not to win minor league championships or to be #1 on BA's organizational rankings every year. The mission of a farm system is to produce major league ballplayers for the MLB team they are affiliated with. It isn't often that a farm system produces the way the Giants system produce in 2010 as their #1 and #2 prospects both graduated to the majors and impacted a run to a World Series title. Not only that, both players appear poised to deliver star quality performances for years to come. It really doesn't get any better than that for prospect watchers!

        #1 Buster Posey: AAA- .349/.442/.552 with 6 HR's, 172 AB's. MLB- .305/.357/.505 with 18 HR's in 406 AB's.

        Everybody knows what Buster accomplished after he arrived in the majors. The performance earned him a very deserved NL Rookie of the Year. The season was capped off by leading the Giants to their first World Series championship since coming to SF. Man, it sure feels good to say that! I don't think I'm ever going to get tired of it! There is still some lingering discontent over the Giants handling of Buster's transition to the majors. The argument is he should have played more in his 2009 September callup and he should have been the Giants starting catcher out of the gate in 2010. I believe the Giants handled him just right. Here is a summary of my argument:

        1. The 2009 callup was mainly for the mental exercise. Get comfortable with the MLB atmosphere. Observe MLB catchers in action. Look, listen, learn.

        2. I don't know enough about the nuances of catching to know whether Buster was ready at the beginning of 2010 or not. John Klima, at baseballbeginnings.com, who I think does know what to look for, has said that as of the Arizona Fall League in 2009, Buster wasn't ready to catch MLB pitching on the level of the Giants pitchers elite stuff. I admit I don't know what that means, but I'm guessing it has to do with blocking balls in the dirt and possibly game calling.

        3. The Giants didn't call up Buster until his manager in Fresno, Steve Decker, gave the green light and said he was ready. Decker is a former MLB catcher himself and should know a thing or two about when a catcher is ready, certainly a lot more than me, or the fans who are criticizing the timing.

        4. The results speak for themselves. You can't argue with success! We will never know what would have happened had Buster started the season as the Giants starting catcher. We do know what actually did happen and you can't write a script with a better outcome!

        5. Thanks to the idiosyncracies of the agreement between MLB and the Players Association, we are assured that Buster will remain a Giant for at least 6 more seasons. Had he started the season in SF, it would be 5 seasons. The Giants gained a full year of Buster Posey at the cost of 6 weeks. I'll take that deal any day!

        Things to be slightly concerned about going forward: 1. Sophomore slump. MLB pitchers may detect a weakness that Buster will have to re-adjust to. I have confidence in his ability to make adjustments going forward. 2. Stamina. Buster wore down at the end of 2009 and looked awfully tired at times at the end of 2010. The delay in making him the everyday catcher may have preserved him just long enough to get him through the postseason. I believe the Giants need to upgrade their backup catcher position to ensure that Buster gets the days off he needs to stay strong throughout the season.

        Beyond that, barring injury, another thing I worry about due to the position he plays, Buster is a MLB star, a cornerstone player who will be a Giant deep into the decade.

        Buster won't be on the 2011 Top Prospects list because he has graduated to the majors. The Giants organizational rankings will suffer because of it, but the MLB team will prosper and that is the whole purpose of having a farm system in the first place!