Saltzman Says... Golden State Warriors State of the Franchise 2012

We are 10 games into a 66 game, condensed schedule, lockout shortened season.  The Warriors, 3-7, like play-by-play man Bob Fitzgerald predicted on his KNBR radio show, are off to a bumpy, injury prone, dramatic start.

The Good - The Warriors have beaten two teams, Miami and Chicago that have combined for 18 wins already this year, and also beat the New York Knicks. 

The Bad - The Warriors played 7 of their 1st 10 at home and have a losing record (3-4) at home.

The Ugly - It will get worse before it gets better.  Stephen Curry has missed most of the season so far with sprained ankles that have come 3 separate times this season.  Also, Kwame Brown is done for the season with a torn chest muscle.

As far as the franchise goes, the team seems to have a good nucleus in place in the front office and with their staff.  Joe Lacob, the principle owner of the franchise, hired Jerry West to serve of his executive board, hired Rick Welts as his president, Bob Myers as his asst. GM, and hired Mark Jackson as his head coach.  While West's reputation is legendary and Welts is as well respected around the league as anybody, Myers and Jackson are brand new to their job descriptions.  Myers is a former player agent and Jackson is a former player and analyst.  That being said, Myers is one of the most respected player agents in the game, and who better to deal with other agents, than a former one.  Jackson, while never having coached before, certainly knows how to lead, whether as a starting point guard in the NBA for 17 seasons or at his church as the pastor.  It can certainly be said that the health of the organization at the top is good news for fans.

As far as the team goes, they are a long way from respectability.  Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright, David Lee and Andris Biedrins is the team's starting lineup if everyone is healthy, and that if has been a big one the last year and 10 games.  Ekpe Udoh is the only other returner from last season.  The team found a lot of 1 year replacements to fill out the roster this season.  Kwame Brown, who was brought in to fill the void of a true backup center, is out for the year with a torn chest muscle.  The combination of Brown and Biedrins certainly helped the team's interior defense. Second year man Udoh has had to log critical minutes at center this season, and he was certainly over matched against the best center in the game last night in Dwight Howard.  Lee's primary backup is Dominic McGuire.  Wright's primary backup is Brandon Rush who has a qualifying offer for next season.  Rookie Klay Thompson is the primary backup to Ellis and veteran Nate Robinson was brought in to backup Stephen Curry.  Second year man Ish Smith and rookie Charles Jenkins can both play point guard as well, and rookie Jeremy Tyler is another big body that is very raw.

The team should have about $14 million to spend next season and about $19 million to spend in 2013/14.  That kind of money should give the team some flexibility heading into the off-seasons.  None of the new players this year will cost the team much more than they are making this year.  Brown, McGuire, Rush, Robinson and Smith could all be brought back to small, reasonable contracts.  That kind of versatility hasn't been the case in several years for the Warriors.

Also, with each passing year, Ellis, Biedrins and Lee's contracts become more trade friendly.  The turnover between this year and next year could finally see some changes to the starting lineup.  As fans, people will be hoping for a trade deadline miracle along the likes of Baron Davis a few years ago.  We'll see if the new ownership has something up their sleeve.

Saltzman Says...two sides to every Warrior

Warriors are entering a new season with a new owner, new asst. general manager, new head coach, and some new players.  Optimism is in the air like the smell of old converse sneakers in the old run down gym used to shoot the movie Hoosiers.

As a season ticket holder since 2005, I cannot share the optimism.  However, here is the best case scenario and worst case scenario for each player this season.

PG Stephen Curry
Positive:  He is entering his third season, and usually that is when a young point guard can really blossom.  He has improved several parts of his game, and as the unquestioned leader of the team, he can elevate even further with a more disciplined approach to defense.  Becomes one of the best PG's in the game.

Negative: He is undersized for PG on both ends of the floor, and he is never able to defend his position.  He regresses as a passer and struggles to run the offense.  Ends up a 2nd unit 2 guard like Jason Terry or Ben Gordon or J.J. Redick, instead of an elite PG.

SG Monta Ellis
Positive: He doesn't care about anything but winning.  He becomes the NBA steals leader without sacrificing the lane again and again.  He becomes a solid defender, and continues to be deadly from 18'.  His three point shot improves, and he gets to the free throw line more with his takes to the basket.

Negatives: The trade rumors continue, the turmoil with management never heals, he is sent packing and never lives up to his full potential in Oakland.  Worse, he stays here, but stays a shoot first, shoot second 2 guard with no defense to be proud of and never goes to the line.

SF Dorell Wright
Positives: He continues to be one of the best 3 point shooters in the game, but his defense is the centerpiece of Mark Jackson's team.  He is able to stabilize Kobe, LeBron, and Dirk at different times during the year, and his defense makes him one of the best all around players in the league.

Negatives: He becomes nothing more than an outside shooter.  His defense falters and he becomes a liability as the starting 3.

PF David Lee
Positives: His grit and toughness evolves into production on the defensive end, and his hustle and hard work allows him to lead the league in offensive rebounds.  His double double's help lead the team on both ends of the floor.

Negatives: His offense becomes nothing more than an occasional elbow jumper.  He becomes a stat collector for rebounds and never grabs a hustle rebound or gets a key put back.  His money becomes a strain on the team's finances and they can't bring in an impact player for several years.

C Andris Biedrins
Positives: His double double's come back, as he gets back to using his quickness to get to the glass without fear of the free throw line.  His defense gets even better as he solidifies the back end of the defense.  His free throw shot improves with dedication.

Negatives: His game is shot, his toughness is permanently gone, and he becomes a $9 million lump on the end of the bench.

Bench

PG Charles Jenkins
Positives: He gets added to the long list of New York City PG's who flourish in the NBA.  He gets points in the paint and makes great passes on the offensive end, and holds his own on defense.

Negatives: He can't get accustomed to the NBA, and struggles with turnovers and his defense at the next level.

SG/SF Klay Thompson
Positives: Becomes a seamless transition to the NBA, much like Stephen Curry, with his NBA lineage.  His shot keeps him earning minutes, and his points per game helps lead a young bench to a much improved season.

Negatives: Can't hang on the defensive end with his size and lack of elite quickness and he can't get his own shot at the NBA level.

PF Ekpe Udoh
Positives: His defense anchors the 2nd unit and he becomes a relentless rebounder and shot blocker.  He starts to learn the offensive side of the game a little and can put up points with open jumpers.

Negatives: Is a complete non factor on the offensive end, and spends too much time on the bench in foul trouble.  He gets handled by bigger and stronger 4's and can't keep good 4's out of the paint for easy points.

C Kwame Brown
Positives: His defense keeps the rim off limits to the 2nd unit and he earns some starts with his defensive play.  He actually provides 6-8 PPG with put backs and hustle plays and contributes on both ends.

Negatives: He becomes a trade piece at the trade deadline on his one year deal and he has no impact on the offensive end at all.  He becomes a 6 foul defender who can't help at the 5, and leaves Biedrins on the floor way too many minutes a game.  Even worse, Lou Amundson and Biedrins are stuck playing key center minutes because of his inability to play.

PF Lou Amundson
Positives: Great energy guy off the bench who helps the 2nd unit keep the best teams out of the paint and away from 2nd chance points.

Negatives: Becomes a liability on both ends with an inability to score and a inability to defend.

C Jeremy Tyler
Positives: Becomes a force in the middle by the end of the year with his ability on both ends.  Is the steal of the draft with his size and ability.  Can score in the low post and can defend the rim.  No need for Kwame Brown next year because of his growth.

Negatives: Permanent D-League player who never makes it to Oakland.

Saltzman Says...Warriors collecting peices

The Warriors have brought in a brain trust to rival most NBA teams. Jerry West and company know the best thing Golden State can do is to collect players other teams will covet. By grabbing three prospects in the draft, the Warriors have more options heading into free agency.

Klay Thompson - the son of former #1 overall pick Mychal Thompson, gives the Warriors a 6-7 swingman to join Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. If you add restricted free agent Reggie Williams, the Warriors have four players who can score the basketball and could be assets other teams want. Most NBA teams don't call the Warriors about Acie Law or Charlie Bell and Jeremy Lin is a project at best.

Charles Jenkins - adding Jenkins, a 6-3 New York City point guard out of Hofstra, the Warriors have a possible upgrade at point to Law and Lin. Curry and Ellis desperately need minutes off the floor over the 82 game season and beyond, and these two guards can help with that.

Jeremy Tyler - the Warriors then went out and spent $2 million buying the draft rights to Tyler from Charlotte. Tyler is a 6-10 power forward who recently turned 20 and skipped his senior year of high school to play professionally overseas. If the gamble pays off, Tyler could be one of the two big bodies the Warriors desperately need to go with Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh, David Lee and Lou Amundson.

If nothing else, the Warriors added three players to use as building blocks or trade bait as they look to finally get back to the post season.

Saltzman Says...The Warriors get a D+

Golden State Warriors: D+

The Warriors didn't make the playoffs for the 16th time in 17 seasons.  At this point in the Franchise's history, making the playoffs should be considered a C.  In a league where 16 of the 30 teams make the post-season every year, a drought like this is unforgivable.  Making the playoffs is what they are suppose to do.  If a student does the bare minimum in class, it is a C effort, where as if they go above and beyond, it is an A or B effort.  The Warriors have been a D franchise for nearly two decades, and getting the 8th seed in the post-season would be a C.  If they could win a series, like in 2007, or get one of the top 5 or 6 seeds, that would be a B, and obviously getting to the Conference Finals or better would be an A.

Joe Lacob and Peter Guber: C-

The owners did more talking than walking in their first year as owners.  They approved the upgrade of talent over future with the David Lee trade, they made a lot of promises that haven't panned out and they continue to talk big.  They get a C- for doing nothing yet.  They seem to have the potential to be A owners down the road.  The hiring of Bob Myers, a great agent who knows basketball, to be an assistant GM is a step in the right direction.  We'll see what they do with the coach.

Larry Riley: C

Riley started his career with the Warriors as an assistant coach, and then his promotion to the front office started by dumping Jamal Crawford, Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette.  While those three players are competing for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, the Warriors were downgraded with every trade.  However, the cost cutting has finally ended.  Now, with a more determined ownership group, and a more patient approach, the Warriors have spent more on scouting and on the draft.  Stephen Curry and Ekpe Udoh are certainly two building blocks for a strong future.  The Warriors signing of Dorell Wright this off-season (a deal worked out between Larry Riley and Bob Myers) was also a great piece.  A great outside shooter who can defend his position well could turn out to be one of the great free agent steals in a long time.  This off-season will test Riley.  Can he bring in a big man who can push Andris Biedrins in practice and play alongside Lee and Udoh.  A fifth big man to go with those three and Lou Amundson will be his biggest test.  Then, he needs to add a wing player that will be a defensive upgrade over the collection of Al Thornton, Vladimir Radmanovic and Reggie Williams.  Finally, he will need to bring in a third guard who can be a significant contributor.  Acie Law and Jeremy Lin showed flashes, primarily because they work hard, but they need an talent upgrade at the position, especially defensively. 

Nobody knew at the time that Wright would contribute so much.

Keith Smart: C

Smart was in a lose-lose when he took over for Don Nelson.  The Warriors needed someone who would light a fire in the players on the court and keep the locker room a great place to come to work.  However, even after accomplishing both, he couldn't match the strategy of more seasoned coaches, and he couldn't get his players to out talent more talented teams.  Being asked to make the playoffs without an all-star or a defensive presence in the paint is a near impossible task for any coach.  Yet ultimately, it might be exactly why the owners look for a more proven coach to replace Smart this off-season.

Players by Grade:
Dorell Wright: A-

Wright is the only A in the group because he is the only player this season that exceeded everyone's expectations.  Wright became the first player in the history of the NBA to score more points in year seven than he had scored in six previous years.  If that doesn't make him a shoe-in for the Most Improved Player award, then they should ban the award from ever being given.  He became one of the most reliable outside shooters in the game and gave him an opportunity to take part in the 3 point shootout during All-Star weekend.  He also was the team's best perimeter defender, which isn't saying much, but he did do a great job defending his man.  He was the best player on the Warriors at both ends of the floor.

Monta Ellis: B+

Monta was one of the leading scorers in all of baseball, became a great closer at the end of games, and despite getting banged up all year, was healthy enough to play almost the entire season.  He scored nearly 2,000 points, and he improved defensively.  Yet, as the Warriors best players, he rarely made his teammates better and he didn't play enough on the defensive end to warrant being the best player on the team.  Great players lead their teams to the playoffs.  He hasn't yet.  Baron Davis was the last great player on the Warriors.  Ellis hasn't become great yet.

Stephen Curry: B

Curry didn't play as well as people expected, but as a second year point guard in a point guard league, expectations were high.  He did become one of the most exciting offense point guards in the game in just two years, earned his way to All-Star weekend for a skills competition he won, and proved at times he could outplay some of the best point guards in the game.  However, as long as him and Ellis start together, they will both be downgraded overall because of their defense.  Until they play better defense, they will not be A players.

Ekpe Udoh: B-

The amount of potential on the defensive end is endless, yet he had no expectations on offense.  If he commits to the defensive end, without giving up his effort level on offense, he can become a great 1-2 punch with David Lee once they find another center.  Out of position, Udoh played admirably.  After sitting out the first few months of the season with a broken wrist, Udoh learned on the job in mid-season.  A lot to ask for a rookie.

David Lee: C+

For $80 million, clearly Lee is seen by management as a building block for a championship.  Together with Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry, it is clear that is what they looked at as a winning formula.  It got them to 36 wins.  To me, $80 million should help a team make a 16 team playoff structure out of only 30 teams.  Lee did play well at times, and his numbers clearly were an upgrade at the power forward position.

Acie Law: C+

Law is an average point guard at best, but he played hard, fought for his minutes, and justified his playing time.  He isn't the answer at point guard next year as Curry's backup but he had an admirable year in his second stint in Oakland.

Vladimir Radmanovic: C-

Not sure if anything was expected out of Radmanovic when he was thrown into the Stephen Jackson trade along with Raja Bell.  Most likely he will not be brought back, and for how little help the team has on the bench, it is sad that they wouldn't want there most consistent bench player.  That tells you a little something about how bad 'Bad Vlad' and his bench was.

Reggie Williams: C-

The fact that one of the worst teams in basektball has one of the top 3 point shooters in basketball in Williams and might not bring him back for another year should say something about the rest of his game.  His inability to develop anything beyond an outside shot is why he is deserving of his grade.

Lou Amundson: D+

When healthy, he showed what he can do in an NBA game, which is fight for rebounds, play some defense, hustle, and do a lot of the intangibles that is necessary from a bench player.  His time in a suit this year is as much a reason for the grade as his limited potential to do any more than what he did this season.

Jeremy Lin: D+

Lin showed flashes of toughness, defense, and some point guard ability.  He clearly was successful in the D-league which does say something about his ability to contribute in the NBA.  Will he be enough to backup Stephen Curry in 2011-12?  I don't think he has shown enough to warrant that yet.

Al Thornton: D+

Thornton has never lived up to his potential and he was given a chance to be a backup small forward on a team desperate for offense off the bench.  Thornton has Corey Maggette like potential off the bench, but he hasn't figured out how to do that night in and night out.  Until he does, he won't be worthy of a rotation spot on the Warriors.

Jeff Adrien: D+

Good is he was brought back this season after posting monster rebounding numbers in the D-League.  Bad is he never played well enough to showcase those skills in the Warriors rotation which is in desperate need of rebounding.

Andris Biedrins: F

Biedrins has now become a laughinstock around the league with his gutless play and one of the most overpaid players in the game.  He refuses to adjust at the charity stripe, and his shot is awful.  Don Nelson commented during the season that one of the reasons they let him go was by suggesting that Biedrins work with Rick Barry on underhand free throws.  What a brilliant idea, from one of the best offensive minds in the game and the greatest scorer in Warriors history.  No matter what Biedrins does next year, his 2010-11 will go down as one of the most pitiful by a Warrior in a long time.  And that is saying something.

Charlie Bell: F

It is sad that a player like Bell can steal money from an organization.  Absolute waste of space.  Must be released this off-season, or moved to a team desperate for expiring contracts.
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Marcus Thompson III's take on the Warriors:  Here is the link

Saltzman Says...Recalling an earlier Warriors post

Possible Free Agents Revisited:
Originally posted on 2/4/11
If the Warriors don't make a move at the deadline, they will have about $7 million to play with next off-season and their mid-level exception, which should be about $5 million a year.

If the Warriors were to pay DeAndre Jordan $7 million a year and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and our own restricted free agent Reggie Williams a share of the $5 million a year mid level exception, I think we could make the playoffs.  We should probably bring back Vladimir Radmanovic for the veteran's minimum too.

Jordan could be an intimidating presence in the middle for the Warriors

Jordan gives us a legit shot blocker who will push Biedrins for minutes and should start.

Mbah a Moute could start at SF for us, and allow Dorell Wright to win sixth man of the year.  He could finally give us a replacement for Stephen Jackson, as he has shown the versatility to guard Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki among others.

Would Mbah a Moute finally give us a defender like we had in Stephen Jackson?

Both can excel on the defensive end of the floor.  Both are restricted free agents for teams that have plenty of other big name free agents they might not be able to move (i.e. former Warriors Baron Davis and Corey Maggette respectively.)

If we draft a big point guard in June, we can give Curry someone to control the 2nd unit.

2011-12 Roster:
PG Stephen Curry
PG Draft pick
SG Monta Ellis
SG Reggie Williams (our own RFA)
SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SF Dorell Wright
SF Vladimir Radmanovic (might be re-signed for vet's minimum)
PF David Lee
PF Ekpe Udoh 
C DeAndre Jordan
C Andris Biedrins
C Lou Admunson
----------------------------
If we are playing a big team, we could put out a 5 of Curry/Wright/Mbah a Moute/Udoh/Biedrins and have more length and quickness.

If we are playing a slow team, we could put Curry/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Jordan and run them out of the gym.

I think we are close to being a respectable team, and we don't yet have the talent to compete with the elite teams.  Ellis averaging 25 a game, Lee averaging a double-double, and Curry growing into a starting point guard role can all end up improving even more next year.  That, on top of the possible new additions next year could finally get us into the playoffs on a consistent basis.

Saltzman Says...Warriors have key pieces missing

The Warriors have a closer.  Do they have any other pieces?

In my previous post, I established my 5 criteria for a championship:
1. A center who can defend the paint
2. A great defender on the perimeter
3. A point guard who can facilitate
4. Perimeter scoring
5. A Closer


So, to keep this local, how far are the Golden State Warriors from a championship?  On a scale of 1 to 10 (1 being Todd Fuller and 10 being Bill Russell) how far away is Golden State from a title?

1. Andris Biedrins (4)
2. Dorell Wright (6)
3. Stephen Curry (6)
4. Reggie Williams (9)
5. Monta Ellis (9)

6. David Lee (7): it might sound redundant, and it is almost always the case, but a rebounding PF would rank next.
7. Acie Law (2): Backup facilitator is almost as important as the starter, because you always need a point who can run the offense.
8. Ekpe Udoh (6): you need another defender of the rim.  Most big men can't play anywhere near 48 minutes a game, so you can't have big stretches without a strong defender in the paint.
9. Charlie Bell (2): Another perimeter defender who can sub in and help keep the other team from going on a run.
10. Vladimir Radmanovic (5): Another perimeter scorer who can sub in and help keep the other team from shutting down the offense.
11.  Lou Amundson (5): Energy guy off the bench, who can help the frontcourt through an 82 game season and four rounds of the playoffs.
12. Jeremy Lin (2): Energy guy off the bench, who can help the backcourt through an 82 game season and four rounds of the playoffs.


The biggest problem the Warriors face going forward is Andris Biedrins.  He is nowhere near the center who seemed to not only deserve $9 million a year to be our defender in the paint, but was only going to get better.  Instead, he has only gotten worse.  He has become a shell of himself on the offensive end, mainly because of a fear of the free throw line.  He has become so passive, it is not worth the minimal effort he does give on the defensive end to warrant the money he is making.

The Warriors have only six players who are above average for their role on any championship caliber team.  1. Monta Ellis is clearly one of the elite closers in the NBA.
2. Reggie Williams has clearly established himself as an outside scoring threat.  If the Warriors are to become a championship team, they need to allow Williams to flourish in this role.
3. David Lee has a lot of areas he can improve on, but this ability on the glass is essential to any team looking to play into May and June.
4. Stephen Curry will rise up this list soon enough, but his role as the team's facilitator is only slightly above average at this point.  He is a much better shooter than most point guards in the league, but as a passer, leader and defender, he has work to do.
5. Dorell Wright has been given the role of perimeter defender, and has shown to be adequate against the likes of Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, and LeBron James.  He is not where he needs to be in this role, but he is also been asked to be much more.  If the Warriors can find a defensive first swingman who can play SF, Wright can be a more valuable asset to the Warriors long term.
6. Ekpe Udoh could unseat Biedrins as soon as this year, but his play at the rim has shown the potential to be a part of something special.  He may never be the starting center on a championship team, but he could already be a contributor.

Saltzman Says...Gilbert Arenas gives advice to Warriors

"And then, hopefully, they make the right decisions by building veterans around him, like [the Boston Celtics did with Rajon] Rondo, like [the Chicago Bulls] did with Derrick Rose. You've got to put veterans [there] so he can learn how to play winning basketball. If he stays with all these young guys, he's just going to learn how to lose and be OK with it."

Read more: Put Veterans around Wall

Even though Gilbert didn't mention the Warriors directly, I think his take on how Wall can be successful is s direct connection to his time in Golden State.  By playing with young guys with no experience like Jason Richardson, Troy Murphy, and Mike Dunleavy, nobody knew how to win in the NBA.  After Arenas moved to Washington, he was surrounded by a wiser Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler and put into a winning environment.  Gilbert's best years in the NBA were played with veterans who knew how to win.

Stephen Curry has Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and David Lee, who each have played on one playoff team.  Dorell Wright saw many playoff rounds with his time in Miami.  Vladimir Radmanovic has some great years in L.A. to reflect back on.  The key to success for Curry is to know that the season is a marathon and that having a great stat line means nothing if you don't win the game.  Curry has his father to aide him about winning basketball too, and Keith Smart has coached and been coached by some of the best the game has ever seen. 



Can Smart and Curry make the Warriors great again?


Growing as a team can work in the NBA, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are a perfect example.  With a superstar in Kevin Durant, a growing leader ont the court in Russell Westbrook, a disciplined defensive minded coach in Scott Brooks, and great role players in Nick Collison and Thabo Sefolosha.

Saltzman Says...The Trade Deadline is in Two Weeks

My Two Cents...

1.  If we are trading Monta Ellis or Stephen Curry at the deadline, we better be getting an All-Star type in return.  (Andre Iguodala, Nene, Carmelo Anthony, Gerald Wallace, etc...)  You don't give up either of your two best players unless you are getting an equally good player in return that fits better in the starting lineup.  Stop suggesting trades where we get trash in return but give up a stud.
2. If we are moving Andris Biedrins, the way he is playing, it will probably be for an equally bad contract.  Were not getting much back if we move him.
3. David Lee, Dorell Wright, and Ekpe Udoh are not going anywhere.  Lee is too expensive to move and is the best power forward we have had since Chris Webber.  Wright is at worst, one of the best 6th man in basketball, and is too valuable for how small his contract is.  Udoh is proving to be a great student of the game, is on a rookie contract, and has tremendous upside.
4. Our expirings are worthless.  Dan Gadzuric, Vladimir Radmanovic and Brandan Wright have zero value, so the only way a team takes one of them, is if they are desperate to get under the cap.  I don't know if there is that much desperation out there.

Honestly, I'd prefer to get better bench players for what we have.  Let the starting 5 continue to play together this year, and see if we can't move the three expirings and Charlie Bell.

Will Dorell Wright's all around game equal his 3 point shooting?

Saltzman Says...If the Warriors don't make a move at Deadline

If the Warriors don't make a move at the deadline, they will have about $7 million to play with next off-season and their mid-level exception, which should be about $5 million a year.

If the Warriors were to pay DeAndre Jordan $7 million a year and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and our own restricted free agent Reggie Williams a share of the $5 million a year mid level exception, I think we could make the playoffs.  We should probably bring back Vladimir Radmanovic for the veteran's minimum too.

Jordan could be an intimidating presence in the middle for the Warriors

Jordan gives us a legit shot blocker who will push Biedrins for minutes and should start.

Mbah a Moute could start at SF for us, and allow Dorell Wright to win sixth man of the year.  He could finally give us a replacement for Stephen Jackson, as he has shown the versatility to guard Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki among others.

Would Mbah a Moute finally give us a defender like we had in Stephen Jackson?

Both can excel on the defensive end of the floor.  Both are restricted free agents for teams that have plenty of other big name free agents they might not be able to move (i.e. former Warriors Baron Davis and Corey Maggette respectively.)

If we draft a big point guard in June, we can give Curry someone to control the 2nd unit.

2011-12 Roster:
PG Stephen Curry
PG Draft pick
SG Monta Ellis
SG Reggie Williams (our own RFA)
SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SF Dorell Wright
SF Vladimir Radmanovic (might be re-signed for vet's minimum)
PF David Lee
PF Ekpe Udoh 
C DeAndre Jordan
C Andris Biedrins
C Lou Admunson
----------------------------
If we are playing a big team, we could put out a 5 of Curry/Wright/Mbah a Moute/Udoh/Biedrins and have more length and quickness.

If we are playing a slow team, we could put Curry/Ellis/Wright/Lee/Jordan and run them out of the gym.

I think we are close to being a respectable team, and we don't yet have the talent to compete with the elite teams.  Ellis averaging 25 a game, Lee averaging a double-double, and Curry growing into a starting point guard role can all end up improving even more next year.  That, on top of the possible new additions next year could finally get us into the playoffs on a consistent basis.

Saltzman Says...Warriors should dump their waste

State of the Warriors Franchise

After all is said and done, the Golden State Warriors have 5 players worthy of keeping past this season, 2 players not worth enough to move, and the rest aren't worth their contract.  That may seem harsh, but when a team has been so inept for so long, they don't deserve best case scenarios and optimism. 

Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Dorrell Wright, and David Lee.  The Warriors actually have 4/5 of a starting lineup.  That doesn't mean that the Warriors will ever win a championship with that backcourt, or Wright as a starting wingman, but they have 4 starters worthy of a place on this team long term.  Andris Biedrins was a great young center two years ago, but he has become a shell of himself.  He has become so paranoid about his pathetic free throw shooting, that he stopped being aggressive and he stopped working hard on the offensive side of the floor.

Reggie Williams is a good backup swingman.  So was Kelenna Azubuike and Anthony Morrow.  So was Marco Belinelli and Jamal Crawford.  So was Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes.  So was...are you sensing a theme here.  The Warriors have been mostly successful at finding good bench players who aren't good enough to start.

Ekpe Udoh and Lou Amundson are both big men with small NBA contracts.  They are both signed through next year and beyond and have no business going anywhere else.  They are good role players, much in same way Ronny Turiaf was. 

Vladimir Radmanovic, Dan Gadzuric, Brandan Wright and Charlie Bell are not the answer.  None of them should be back in 2011-2012.  They are all making millions more than they are worth to an NBA team.

So what do we do?

Do we make a blockbuster trade for Carmelo Anthony?:

No, but I like the thought process.  Like it or not, it's an All-Star run league and the Warriors haven't had an All-Star since 1997.  Anthony hasn't won a title in Denver, and can't win by himself.  Neither can LeBron James, Dwayne Wade or Kobe Bryant.  Kobe needed Pau Gasol, and LeBron and Wade have each other now.  Monta Ellis is becoming an All-Star.  He needs help.  David Lee certainly applies as a 20-10 power forward who loves to hustle and get after it on defense.  Stephen Curry is certainly capable of being a running mate, and Dorell Wright is showing to be one of the best bargains in the game.  At the end of the day, Ellis still needs his other cornerstone.  Anthony could be it, but it would cost too much to get him.  Especially with so many teams after him and his desire to end up in New York next year anyway.

What are some trades that would make sense?

If Charlotte was looking to save money....

Trade Dan Gadzuric, Brandan Wright and a future draft pick for Gerald Wallace

If DeAndre Jordan is the answer at center for the L.A. Clippers...

Trade Vladimir Radmanovic and Charlie Bell and a future draft pick to the Clippers for Chris Kaman

If the Memphis Grizzlies have given up on O.J. Mayo...

Trade Andris Biedrins to Memphis for Hasheem Thabeet and O.J. Mayo

New Look:
PG Curry
SG Ellis
SF Wallace
PF Lee
C Kaman

PG Mayo
SG Williams
SF Wright
PF Udoh
C Amundson

PG Law/Lin
C Thabeet

We get a reliable center in Kaman, a legitimate small forward in Wallace, and a potent 6th man in O.J. Mayo.  With the size and length of all three we can continue to build around our undersized trio of Ellis, Curry and Lee.  

Charlotte and Los Angeles would get cap relief.  That would be the biggest reason to take someone like Gadzuric or Radmanovic.  Obviously they are not getting the talent back that you might hope for for Wallace and Kaman.  But between the money they would save long term and the 1st round picks that would come along with the expiring contracts, it might be tempting.

Memphis would get an upgrade from Thabeet and insurance for Marc Gasol.  It very well may be too much money to pay a 7'0" who doesn't start, but maybe Biedrins can flourish playing with Gasol and Zach Randolph.  You can't teach 7'0" and having a guy as young as Biedrins may appeal to them.

The trip of Kaman, Wallace and Mayo joining our foursome gives us 7 capable NBA starters on our team.  That, along with Williams and two decent big men in Udoh and Admunson gives us a team that can compete for the playoffs every year.  Thabeet would get time to develop in the D-League along with Jeremy Lin, and in next year's draft we can go after a PG or a C to challenge those two for a roster spot.  Until trades like this are made, we will still always be a few players away from the playoffs.

Saltzman Says... What can the Warriors get for nothing?

1. PG Stephen Curry
2. SG Monta Ellis
3. SF Dorrell Wright
4. PF David Lee
5. C Andris Biedrins

Unless a big trade is made, this is the starting lineup for the Golden State Warriors for the next 3 years.
All of these players are locked up for at least 3 years, and all are playing well when healthy.

6. Reggie Williams has been a bargain for the kind of offensive scorer he is.

The jury is out of rookie 7. PF Ekpe Udoh and 8. PF/C Lou Amundson because they are hurt, but they have small contracts.

9. Swingman Rodney Carney is making nothing by NBA standards, so he is worth every penny considering his ability on both ends of the floor.

Who belongs in the other three spots long term on this roster?

Jeremy Lin is signed through next year, but that doesn't guarantee him a spot on the dress list.
Jeff Adrien is a banger inside in the mold of Brandon Bass, Paul Millsap, and Craig Smith.  Is he worth keeping?
Charlie Bell is signed through next year, but hasn't made much of a contribution.  His expiring contract next year could play a big role in landing a younger player.
Dan Gadzuric, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Brandan Wright are 21' of garbage making almost $1 million a foot.

For $21 million, plus the $4 million Charlie Bell is making is plenty of money to throw at a team looking to cash in on Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony next year.

Stephen Curry and Dorell Wright are not better than Paul or 'Melo, but are they worth waiting for just to lose out like New Jersey, Los Angeles, and Cleveland did with the LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer sweepstakes.

What teams are desperate?  Orlando?  Houston?  Portland?  Philadelphia?  New York?  New Orleans?

Would Rashard Lewis be worth giving up $21 million coming off the books?
What about Vince Carter?
Gilbert Arenas?
Andre Iguodala?
Elton Brand?
Brandon Roy?
Yao Ming?
Eddy Curry?
David West?

Saltzman Says... There is A New Era in Oakland...

Joe Lacob and Peter Guber will have some decisions to make about the new look Warriors.

1. Is Keith Smart the long term answer as coach.
2. Is Larry Riley the man that can bring in the talent to surround what we have.
3. How do you find a superstar and bring them in.
4. Who stays and who goes from Robert Rowell, who is excellent on the business side, and equally horrible on the basketball side, to Jeremy Lin, who is a clearly hear because he is local and he can bring in new fans.

My two cents...

Keith Smart can be the long term solution for this team and this city.  Smart tells it like it is, but works as hard as anyone to make is work.  He will instill the work ethic that the entire team needs.

Larry Riley clearly knows how to bring in pieces to help the coach, and not just be nice to Nellie. 

Dorrell Wright and David Lee are much better fits for what Smart wants to do on both ends of the floor.  Lee ability to get 20-10 trumps the offensive potential of Anthony Randolph and Kelenna Azubuike, who couldn't guard anyone.  It was tough to lose Ronny Turiaf, but Lou Admunson is a cheaper version of the same player.  While Rodney Carney isn't as good a scorer as Corey Maggette, he clearly is a better defender.  Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell, while overpaid for their roles on the team, clearly put a premium on defense.  Their contracts also give the team better flexibility than Maggette.

The result is 3 of the 5 starters being more defensive minded than offensive minded.  Curry and Ellis have length and size playing along side them.

Long term we have all 5 starters locked up for at least 3 years.  Reggie Williams, Rodney Carney, Lou Admunson, and Ekpe Udoh are all good inexpensive pieces.

Gadzuric, Brandan Wright and Vladamir Radmanovic all are in the last year of their contracts and could be moved at the trading deadline in February. Charlie Bell only has one year remaining.  There is a lot of flexibility on this year's roster.  It's nice to see after so many years of being over the cap without the talent to win, or sabotaging their only good team the last 15 years after we all believed.