Saltzman Says...Breaking down the Giants 25 Man Roster (January 12th Edition)

Rotation:
1. #1 Starter: Tim Lincecum
2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 3)
2012 Projected Salary: $19.2 million

2. #2 Starter: Matt Cain
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $15 million (with added extension??)

3. #3 Starter: Madison Bumgarner
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $850K

4. #4 Starter: Ryan Vogelsong
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $3 million

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has the breakdown (on Twitter). Vogelsong will earn $3MM in 2012, $5MM in 2013, and then a $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyout for 2014 comes into play. The total guarantee is $8.3MM.

5. #5 Starter: Barry Zito
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $19 million ($46 million buyout unlikely)

Starters Estimated Payroll Impact: $56.5 million

Other candidates to start: Dan Runzler and Erik Surkamp, (eligible to pitch in the minors.) 

Possible Free Agent Starters include: Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda, Jason Marquis, Brad Penny, Javier Vasquez

Bullpen:
6. Closer Brian Wilson
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $8.5 million

7. Setup Man Sergio Romo
2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 1)
2012 Projected Salary: $1.3 million

8. Lefty Specialist Javier Lopez
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2013
2012 Salary: $4.25 million

SAN FRANCISCO -- Left-handed reliever Javier Lopez has agreed to an $8.5 million, two-year contract to stay with the San Francisco Giants, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told The Associated Press on Sunday.
Lopez -- one of baseball's most reliable lefties out of the bullpen -- had been set to become a free agent before receiving a new deal, confirmed under the condition of anonymity because the team had yet to make a formal announcement. Lopez will earn $4.25 million in 2012 and '13.

9. Right Handed Reliever Santiago Casilla
2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 2)
2012 Projected Salary: $1.9 million

10. Left Handed Reliever Jeremy Affeldt
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $5 million

11. Right Handed Reliever Guillermo Mota
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1 million 

12. Long Man/Spot Starter Dan Runzler
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled
2012 Salary: $480K 

Bullpen Estimated Payroll Impact: $22 million ($78 Million Pitching Staff)

Other Candidates to Relieve: Steve Edlefson and Waldis Joaquin (eligible to pitch in the minors.)

Possible Free Agents:

Starting Lineup: 
13. Center Field Angel Pagan

2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 4)
2012 Projected Salary: $4.7 million

14. Second Base Freddy Sanchez

2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $6 million

15. Third Base Pablo Sandoval

2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 1)
2012 Projected Salary: $3.2 million

16. Catcher Buster Posey

2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

17. Left Field Melky Cabrera
2012 Salary Situation: Free Agent
2012 Projected Salary: $4.5 million

18. First Base Aubrey Huff

2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $11 million

19. Right Field Nate Schierholtz

2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 1)
2012 Projected Salary: $1.2 million

20. Shortstop Brandon Crawford
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled
2012 Projected Salary: $480K


Lineup Estimated Payroll Impact: $32 million (110 million total)

Other Candidates to Start: Brandon Belt at 1st/LF


Bench:
21. Catcher Eli Whiteside
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

6. First Base Brett Pill
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

6. Infield Mike Fontenot
2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 3)
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

6. Infield Emmanuel Burriss
2012 Salary Situation: Arbitration Eligible (Year 1)
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

6. 4th Outfield Brandon Belt
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

Bench Estimated Payroll Impact: $4 million

Estimated Payroll: $114 million
Aaron Rowand ($12 million)

Total Payroll: $126 million

Saltzman Says...Rowand and Tejada just the beginning

Aaron Rowand and Miguel Tejada were the 1st two casualties of a record setting offense being released by the San Francisco Giants.  Of course, by record setting, I mean one of the worst offenses in league history, who have set records for consecutive solo home runs and will be establishing records for lack of run support by the team the season is over.  Rowand and Tejada's departure sends a clear and seismic pulse throughout the locker room that each and every veteran felt.

Aubrey Huff, the team's offensive leader in 2010, has been below average the entire year of 2011.  If he continues to struggle into 2012, Brandon Belt will be given the keys at first base, and another 8 figure salary will be chopped.  Cody Ross and Andres Torres, the NLCS MVP and Willie Mac Award winner in 2010, will both be looking for job in another outfield if they do not improve before next season.  Ross is a free agent after the year and Torres is eligible to be offered salary arbitration.  The Giants might not even offer Torres arbitration. Carlos Beltran, who has had a terrible time calling AT&T Park home, will want big money (4 years, $60 million, according to Scott Boras) to stay, so he can play as bad a Rowand and still be happy in San Francisco.

Mark DeRosa, Orlando Cabrera, Pat Burrell and Mike Fontenot will all be free agents as well, and while all four would be low cost returns in 2012, none of the four are guaranteed even a contract offer.  They all might have to be invited to Spring Training.

Guillermo Mota, who was offered an invite to Spring Training each of the last two years, might be more likely to get a contract after his consistency out of the bullpen and his versatility on top of that. Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla and Jeremy Affeldt are not sure returns either, but the talented bullpen should stay in tact in 2012.

Will Zito be the next massive contract to go?

All of that talk pales in comparison to the biggest elephant in the room, Barry Zito and his bloated, oversized, unnecessary, franchise altering contract.  Zito may be staying for no other reason than the team's reluctance to pay him and watch him pitch for someone else.  Jonathan Sanchez, who started 2011 as the team's #2 starter over Matt Cain, might not make the rotation if the team can bring back Ryan Vogelsong.  Sanchez will certainly be an option to trade.  Eric Surkamp, Craig Westcott and others can certainly challenge for a 5th spot in the rotation if the team decides to trade Sanchez or dump Zito.

The only certainty is that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Sergio Romo, and Brian Wilson will pitch for the Giants in 2012.  Buster Posey, Belt, Freddy Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, and Nate Schierholtz will hit in 2012.  And, a lot of veterans will be spared to keep the pitching staff performances count for something.


Bullet Point look at next year by position:

Starting Pitching signed through next year

• Madison Bumgarner
• Matt Cain 
• Barry Zito

Relief Pitching signed through next year

• Brian Wilson

Lineup signed through next year

• C Buster Posey
• 1B Aubrey Huff
• 2B Freddy Sanchez

Pending Arbitration Eligible Pitchers

• Santiago Casilla
• Tim Lincecum
• Ramon Ramirez
• Jonathan Sanchez

Pending Free Agent Pitchers

• Jeremy Affeldt
• Javier Lopez
• Guillermo Mota
• Sergio Romo
• Ryan Vogelsong

Pending Arbitration Eligible Hitters

• Jeff Keppinger 
• Pablo Sandoval
• Nate Schierholtz
• Andres Torres

 Pending Free Agent Hitters

• Carlos Beltran
• Pat Burrell
• Orlando Cabrera
• Mark DeRosa
• Mike Fontenot
• Cody Ross

Saltzman Says...Giants Depth Chart (Updated 7/28/11)

San Francisco's Updated Organizational Depth Chart: (7/28/11 Edition)

Right Handed Pitchers:

RHSP Matt Cain (ML)

RHRP Santiago Casilla (ML)
RHSP Tim Lincecum (ML)
RHRP Guillermo Mota (ML)

RHRP Ramon Ramirez (ML)
RHRP Sergio Romo (ML)
RHSP Ryan Vogelsong (ML)

RHRP Brian Wilson (ML)

RHP Josh Banks (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Casey Daigle (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHRP Steve Edlefson (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)
RHP Waldis Joaquin (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Andrew Kown (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHRP Marc Kroon (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Shane Loux (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Dan Ortero (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Ronnie Ray (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Felix Romero (Fresno Grizzlies)
RHP Hector Correa (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

RHP Justin Fitzgerald (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHRP Heath Hembree (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHP Mitch Lively (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHP Daryl Maday (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHP Osris Matos (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHP Edwin Quirarte (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
RHSP Jose Casilla (San Jose Giants/40 Man)

RHSP Jake Dunning (San Jose Giants)
RHP Jacob Dunnington (San Jose Giants)
RHP Stephen Harrold (San Jose Giants)

RHSP Chris Heston (San Jose Giants)

RHSP Michael Main (San Jose Giants)
RHP Andy Reichard (San Jose Giants)
RHP Jose Valdez (San Jose Giants)
RHSP Craig Westcott (San Jose Giants)

RHP Chris Wilson (San Jose Giants)
RHP Brett Bochy (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Drew Bowlin (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Edward Concepcion (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Austin Fleet (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Taylor Rogers (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Seth Rosin (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Shawn Sanford (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Justin Schumer (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Jeremy Toole (Augusta Green Jackets)
RHP Brandon Allen (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Wilber Bucardo (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Brennan Flick (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Kendry Flores (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Matthew Graham (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Cody Hall (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Cameron Lamb (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Rafael Martinez (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Lorenzo Mendoza (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Reinier Roibal (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
RHP Stephen Shackleford (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
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Left Handed Pitchers:

LHP Jeremy Affeldt (ML)

LHP Madison Bumgarner (ML)

LHP Javier Lopez (ML)
LHP Jonathan Sanchez (ML)

LHP Barry Zito (ML)
LHP Dan Runzler (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)
LHP Matt Yourkin (Fresno Grizzlies)

LHP Justin Dowdy (Fresno Grizzlies)
LHP Geno Espineli (Fresno Grizzlies)
LHP Craig Clark (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Alex Hinshaw (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Chuck Lofgren (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

LHP David Quinowski (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Wilmin Rodriguez (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Erik Surkamp (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Clayton Tanner (Richmond Flying Squirrels/40 Man)
LHP Ryan Verdugo (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
LHP Chris Gloor (San Jose Giants)
LHSP Kelvin Marte (San Jose Giants)
LHP Ari Ronick (San Jose Giants)
LHP Tom Vessella (San Jose Giants)
LHP Ryan Bradley (Augusta Green Jackets)
LHP Michael Kickham (Augusta Green Jackets)
LHP Mario  Rodriguez (Augusta Green Jackets)
LHP Gaspar Santiago (Augusta Green Jackets)
LHP Aaron King (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
LHP Phil McCormick (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
LHP Jack Snodgrass (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
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Catchers:

C Buster Posey (ML)

C Chris Stewart (ML)
C Eli Whiteside (ML)
C Hector Sanchez (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)

C Jackson Williams (Fresno Grizzlies)

C Max Ramirez (Fresno Grizzlies)
C Aaron Lowenstein (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

C Johnny Monell (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
C Eliezer Zambrano (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

C Tommy Joseph (San Jose Giants)
C Alex Burg (San Jose Giants)
C Jesus Navarro (San Jose Giants)
C Jeff Arnold (Augusta Green Jackets)
C Daniel Burkhart (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
C Mike Murray (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
C Joseph Staley (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)

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First Baseman:

1B Brandon Belt (ML)
1B Aubrey Huff (ML)

1B Brett Pill (Fresno Grizzlies)
1B Wes Hodges (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

1B Luke Anders (San Jose Giants)
1B Josh Mazzola (Augusta Green Jackets)
1B Ryan Scoma (Augusta Green Jackets)
1B Brice Cutspec (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)

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Second Baseman:

2B Mike Fontenot (ML)
2B Jeff Keppinger (ML)
2B Freddy Sanchez (ML)

2B Manny Burris (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)
2B Brock Bond (Fresno Grizzlies)
2B Charlie Culberson (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
2B Ryan Lormand (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
2B Ryan Covan (San Jose Giants)
2B Juan Ciriaco (San Jose Giants)
2B Carlos Willoughby (Augusta Green Jackets)
2B Kaohi Downing (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
2B Julio Izturis (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)

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Third Baseman:

3B Pablo Sandoval (ML)

3B Mark DeRosa (Fresno Grizzlies)
3B Conor Gillaspie (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)
3B Chris Dominguez (Richmond Flying Squirrels) 

3B Drew Biery (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
3B Jose Flores (San Jose Giants)
3B Adam Duvall (Augusta Green Jackets)
3B Garrett Buechele (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)

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Shortstops:

SS Brandon Crawford (ML)
SS Miguel Tejada (ML)
SS Nick Noonan (Fresno Grizzlies)

SS Sharlon Schoop (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
SS Ehire Adrianza (San Jose Giants/40 Man)
SS Carter Jurica (San Jose Giants)
SS Bobby Haney (Augusta Green Jackets)
SS Ydwin Villegas  (Augusta Green Jackets)
SS Joel Weeks (Augusta Green Jackets)
SS John Eshleman (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
SS Joseph Panik (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)

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Is Carlos Beltran the final piece to another championship?

Outfielders:
RF Carlos Beltran (ML)
LF Pat Burrell (ML)

LF Cody Ross (ML)
CF Aaron Rowand (ML)
RF Nate Schierholtz (ML)

CF Andres Torres (ML)
OF Justin Christian (Fresno Grizzlies)

OF Brad Eldred (Fresno Grizzlies) 
CF Darren Ford (Fresno Grizzlies)
OF Edgar Gonzalez (Fresno Grizzlies)
OF Tyler Graham (Fresno Grizzlies)
LF Travis Ishikawa (Fresno Grizzlies)

LF Thomas Neal (Fresno Grizzlies/40 Man)

LF Wendell Fairley (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

RF Roger Kieschnick (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
CF Francisco Peguero (Richmond Flying Squirrels/40 Man)
CF Juan Perez (Richmond Flying Squirrels)

LF Skyler Stromsmoe (Richmond Flying Squirrels)
OF Gary Brown (San Jose Giants)
OF Jarrett Parker (San Jose Giants)

OF James Simmons (San Jose Giants)
OF Raynor Campbell (Augusta Green Jackets)
LF Dan Cook (Augusta Green Jackets)
LF Devin Harris (Augusta Green Jackets)
CF Chris Lofton (Augusta Green Jackets)
RF Ryan Lollis (Augusta Green Jackets)
LF Rafael Rodriguez (Augusta Green Jackets)

CF Jesus Galindo (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
OF Ryan Honeycutt (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
OF Charles Jones (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
OF Brett Krill (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
OF Leonardo Ochoa (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
OF Shawn Payne (Salem-Keizer Volcanoes)
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Designated Hitters
DH Tyler LaTorre (Fresno Grizzlies)  
DH Nick Liles (San Jose Giants)
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Saltzman Says...Beltran for Wheeler

Carlos Beltran is a Giant

Beltran for Giants top prospect Zach Wheeler is certainly a risk.  Beltran, who is both injury prone and a pending free agent this off-season, could be a two month rental.  Wheeler, who is pitching in High-A San Jose this season, could be a #1 or #2 starting pitcher in a year or two.

With that said, the 2011 season called for the Giants to make this move.  If Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez were healthy, the Giants don't offer Zach Wheeler to anyone.  With the offense playing the way they have all season, the Giants were not going to go into the post-season with the lineup as is. 

Beltran will be a free agent, but if he hits well at AT&T Park, it is possible to bring back the slugging switch hitter after the season.  Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell have all under performed this year.  Schierholtz and Ross are the most likely to return next year, and Torres may still be a better hitting option than speedster Darren Ford.  More importantly, a middle of the order of Beltran, Posey and Sandoval next year will be a much better Opening Day lineup.

Zach Wheeler, who is by far the Giants #1 pitching prospect, should need at least a full year in Double-A before any promotion to the big leagues.  If the Mets rush him, he might crumble in the mass media of New York.  If they are patient and let him pitch in the minors, he could be one of their top starting pitchers by 2013.

Saltzman Says... 2011 Giant Aaron Rowand?

Will Aaron Rowand be a San Francisco Giant next year?

Aaron Rowand is not in the plans for 2011.  At least, not unless he does a 180 degree turnaround from the end of last season.

Andre Torres is going into Spring Training as the starting center fielder.  If Rowand forces his way into the lineup, Torres would start in left.

We could use a trade partner that has money to spend and a player to unload.

Here are the most likely scenarios:

Phillies:  Raul Ibanez

Both of Rowand's former teams might be interested in bringing the center fielder back.  With Jayson Werth gone and Raul Ibanez struggling last year in Philly, The Phillies might be interested in bringing back their former 30 home run CF.  They might be hesitant to give up Ibanez, but his struggles were in a hitter friendly park, wheras Rowand's were at AT&T.  Rowand had great success as a Philly.

We get a left handed bat to play LF and allow Burrell and DeRosa to be on our bench.  If Ibanez continues to struggle, we have the depth to move guys around.  Ibanez's contract is one year shorter too, so we could wipe both contracts off the books for 2012.

White Sox:  Carlos Quentin

The Sox have an expensive pair of outfielders in Juan Pierre and Alex Rios, but both were productive last year.  Adam Dunn has been brought in and Paul Konerko was brought back, so the team's power will not be an issue next year either.  Andruw Jones, another OF option for Chicago had 19 HR's.

Carlos Quentin could be the odd man out in that mix seeing is how he hit .243 after hitting .236 the year prior.  He is two years removed from hitting .288 and he could start to get expensive in arbitration with his power numbers.  They might not have room for a long term deal with him, so bringing back Rowand could make some sense.  Rowand gives them a upgrade on defense, and a capable bat when he was a Sox everyday center fielder.  It also allows them to dump a lot of salary over the next two years in Pierre and Rowand.

We get a younger OF we could team with Huff and Ross who has 83 home runs over the last three years and went to college at Stanford.  A homecoming might be just what he needs to get his average back closer to .280 than .230.

Mets:   Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran makes more money a year than Aaron Rowand, but Aaron Rowand is owed more money.  Beltran's $18.5 million he is owed is all next year, whereas the $24 million for Rowand is over the next two years.  Sandy Alderson, the Mets new GM, has been told to penny pinch.  If they save $6.5 million this year swapping the two CF's, they might be in better shape next year to deal with Rowand's $12 million.  If not, the Mets do have the kind of money to release Rowand if he has a poor 2011.  Beltran is a risk because of his current injury history, but when healthy, he is an absolute force.

Updated: 12/17/10 4:10pm

Cubs:   Kosuke Fukudome

The Giants and Cubs have been in preliminary talks about a bad contract swap, similar to the one they pulled off last year sending Milton Bradley to Seattle for Carlos Silva.  With how much luck Jim Hendry had pulling off that gem, he might be willing to move Fukudome for a reliable glove and right handed bat.  If the Giants were willing to eat some of the 2012 contract of Rowand's, this deal might work.