Saltzman Says...Beltran for Wheeler

Carlos Beltran is a Giant

Beltran for Giants top prospect Zach Wheeler is certainly a risk.  Beltran, who is both injury prone and a pending free agent this off-season, could be a two month rental.  Wheeler, who is pitching in High-A San Jose this season, could be a #1 or #2 starting pitcher in a year or two.

With that said, the 2011 season called for the Giants to make this move.  If Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez were healthy, the Giants don't offer Zach Wheeler to anyone.  With the offense playing the way they have all season, the Giants were not going to go into the post-season with the lineup as is. 

Beltran will be a free agent, but if he hits well at AT&T Park, it is possible to bring back the slugging switch hitter after the season.  Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell have all under performed this year.  Schierholtz and Ross are the most likely to return next year, and Torres may still be a better hitting option than speedster Darren Ford.  More importantly, a middle of the order of Beltran, Posey and Sandoval next year will be a much better Opening Day lineup.

Zach Wheeler, who is by far the Giants #1 pitching prospect, should need at least a full year in Double-A before any promotion to the big leagues.  If the Mets rush him, he might crumble in the mass media of New York.  If they are patient and let him pitch in the minors, he could be one of their top starting pitchers by 2013.

Saltzman Says...Jose Reyes a Giant?

It is certainly a intriguing idea.  The idea of a top of the lineup difference maker who can play shortstop for the next 5-7 years for the Giants.  At 29, Jose Reyes certainly has some outstanding years left in his body.  However, if we look at Rafael Furcal, there is certainly some red flags to signing Reyes beyond 2011.

Both play a similar brand of baseball, which is hard nose, all out and never let your body get in the way of a triple baseball.  These two lighting fast Dominican-born shortstops have a lot in common.  They are both career .286 hitters who have some pop.  Furcal had 78 home runs by age 29, and Reyes has 75.  Furcal had 251 stolen bases and Reyes already has 342, both have been caught less than 90 times in their career, so it is more than speed.  These guys scare opposing pitchers.  When Furcal signed with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers back in 2006, I knew they had signed a difference maker.

Now, since Furcal's 29th birthday, durability has been a series issue.  Years of averaging 150 games a year took its toll on his body and since he turned 29, Furcal has only played in 150 games in one season (2009).  In no other season in his 30's, has he even played 100.  When healthy, Furcal is one of the most dangerous leadoff hitters in the game...when healthy.

Reyes only played in 36 games in 2009, so durability must be looked at when evaluating the Mets shortstop.  If he can stay on the field, he is one of the games best, and clearly the top free agent option on the market this coming off-season.

If the Giants were to pull off a Reyes trade this season for a package that included Zach Wheeler or Jonathan Sanchez and other minor leaguers, they could look to offer Reyes less money over less years than he might make on the open market.  With all the chaos surrounding New York the last few seasons, it might be a nice change of pace to be in a locker room with fun loving players like Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Tejada, Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell.

Reyes might be safe for now, but trade talks should heat up this summer