Monday, April 16, 2012

Saltzman Says...Sabean's Strategery Showing Sure Signs of Success

Six Sure Signs of Success


1. Matt Cain is an Ace
No matter what happens with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain is signed through 2018.  Regardless of how much money Tim wants, Cain will be here.  That allows the team some leverage in negotiations and does force the hand of Lincecum to perform if he wants more than the $22.5 million he'll make in 2013.

2. 1st Pablo and now Madison
Locking young players up is the easiest way to ensure more cost certainty in the future.  The team did it previously with Cain, and also with Brian Wilson.  Wilson, who's contract is up after the season, actually has a 4th year of arbitration awaiting.  Pablo is signed through his arbitration.  Bumgarner is signed through the first year of his free agency.  Having their salaries locked him could save the team money they might have had to spend to keep them during arbitration, but more importantly, allows them to know what is on their books.



3. 1st Rowand and Huff and then Zito
This year will be interesting because the team might not have any money to spend as they approach the trade deadline, but may have some money next off-season.  Aaron Rowand's $12 million as well as Aubrey Huff's $11 million will both be off the books.  After the team says goodbye to that $23 million, they will finally breathe a sigh of relief the following year when the monstrous 7 year $126 million beast of a contract Barry Zito signed will be gone.  He will make $21 million next season and then the team will pay him $7 million to no longer be a Giant.  That $42 million that is currently devoted to Rowand, Huff and Zito will be gone.

4. The Kids are coming, The Kids are coming...
Freddy Sanchez is making $6 million, Jeremy Affeldt is making $5 million, and Angel Pagan is making $4.5 million. Even if any of these 3 end up having strong years in 2012, they will more than likely be making less in 2013.  It is possible that with the strides being made in the minors by Joe Panik, Heath Hembree and Gary Brown, that the $15.5 million currently devoted to Sanchez, Affeldt and Pagan will turn into $1.2 million to Panik, Hembree and Brown.

5. The Bills will be Paid!
According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports, the Giants will no longer owe $20 million a year for AT&T Park after 2017.  So when the Giants are paying Matt Cain $20 million and Madison Bumgarner $12 million, they can afford to pay Lincecum $25 and Buster Posey whatever he will be making.  Same for Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Nate Schierholtz, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, and Heath Hembree.

6. Even more Kids are coming...
Whether it's current 25 man roster contributors like Hector Sanchez and Brett Pill, 40 man roster options like Francisco Peguero and Charlie Culberson or up and comers like Tommy Joseph and Chris Dominguez, the Giants are stockpiled with talent and that will continue because of the scouting department and the staff the team has put together in the minor leagues.  San Jose, Richmond and Fresno are loaded with talent and potential and it will allow the Giants the flexibility to move a player like Zach Wheeler for Carlos Beltran even if it is a 2 month rental because the team has Erik Surkamp or Kyle Crick

Saltzman Says...25 Man Roster (Madison Bumgarner Extension Edition)

Rotation:
1. #1 Starter: Tim Lincecum
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2013
2012 Salary: $18 million
2013 Salary: $22.5 million


2. #2 Starter: Madison Bumgarner
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Salary: $560K
2013 Salary $750K
2014 Salary $3.75 million
2015 Salary $6.75 million
2016 Salary $9.75 million
2017 Salary $11.5 million
2018 (club vesting option)
2019 (club option)

3. #3 Starter: Matt Cain
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $15 million
2013 Salary $20 million 
2014 Salary $20 million

2015 Salary $20 million

2016 Salary $20 million

2017 Salary $20 million 
2018 Salary $21 million (vesting option)



4. #4 Starter: Ryan Vogelsong
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $3 million
2013 Salary: $5 million
2014 Salary: $6.5 million (club option)

5. #5 Starter: Barry Zito
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2014
2012 Salary: $19 million
2013 Salary: $21 million
2014 Salary: $18 million (club option) 

Bullpen:
6. Closer Brian Wilson
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $8.5 million

7. Setup Man Sergio Romo
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract 
2012 Salary: $1.575 million

8. Lefty Specialist Javier Lopez
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $4.25 million
2013 Salary: $4.25 million

9. Right Handed Reliever Santiago Casilla
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $2.2 million

10. Left Handed Reliever Jeremy Affeldt
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $5 million

11. Right Handed Reliever Guillermo Mota
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1 million 

12. Long Man/Spot Starter Clay Hensley
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $750K 


Starting Lineup: 
13. Center Field Angel Pagan
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $4.85 million

14. Second Base Freddy Sanchez
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $6 million

15. Third Base Pablo Sandoval
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $3.2 million
2013 Salary: $5.7 million
2014 Salary: $8.25 million

16. Catcher Buster Posey
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Salary: $650K

17. Left Field Melky Cabrera
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $6 million

18. First Base Aubrey Huff
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $11 million

19. Right Field Nate Schierholtz
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1.3 million

20. Shortstop Brandon Crawford
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

Bench:
21. Catcher Hector Sanchez
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Salary: $480K

22. First Base Brett Pill
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

23. UT Brandon Belt
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Salary: $480K

24. UT Ryan Theriot
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1.25 million

25. 4th Outfield Gregor Blanco
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Salary: $480K

Aaron Rowand ($12 million)
Total Payroll: $126 million

Monday, April 2, 2012

Saltzman Says...25 Man Roster (Matt Cain Extension Edition)

Rotation:
1. #1 Starter: Tim Lincecum
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2013
2012 Salary: $18 million


2. #2 Starter: Matt Cain
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2017 (vesting option in 2018)
2012 Salary: $15 million


Matt Cain obtains a signing bonus of $5MM and his 2012 salary of $15MM remains unchanged, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). The right-hander will earn $20MM annually from 2013-17 and the deal includes a $21MM option with a $7.5MM buyout for 2018, according to Rosenthal. The 2018 option will vest if Cain is healthy in 2017, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). Otherwise it becomes a club option. Cain has full no-trade protection, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com and MLB Network Radio (Twitter link).

3. #3 Starter: Madison Bumgarner
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $850K

4. #4 Starter: Ryan Vogelsong
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $3 million


5. #5 Starter: Barry Zito
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2014
2012 Salary: $19 million ($46 million buyout unlikely)


Bullpen:
6. Closer Brian Wilson
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $8.5 million

7. Setup Man Sergio Romo
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract 
2012 Salary: $1.575 million

8. Lefty Specialist Javier Lopez
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2013
2012 Salary: $4.25 million

9. Right Handed Reliever Santiago Casilla
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $2.2 million

10. Left Handed Reliever Jeremy Affeldt
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $5 million

11. Right Handed Reliever Guillermo Mota
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1 million 

12. Long Man/Spot Starter Clay Hensley
2012 Salary Situation: Non Guaranteed Contract
2012 Salary: $750K 


Starting Lineup: 
13. Center Field Angel Pagan
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $4.85 million

14. Second Base Freddy Sanchez
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $6 million

15. Third Base Pablo Sandoval
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract through 2014
2012 Salary: $3.2 million

16. Catcher Buster Posey
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

17. Left Field Melky Cabrera
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $6 million

18. First Base Aubrey Huff
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $11 million

19. Right Field Nate Schierholtz
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1.3 million

20. Shortstop Brandon Crawford
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

Bench:
21. Catcher Eli Whiteside
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $1 million

22. First Base Brett Pill
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

23. Infield Mike Fontenot
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1.05 million

24. UT Ryan Theriot
2012 Salary Situation: Under Contract
2012 Salary: $1.25 million

25. 4th Outfield Brandon Belt
2012 Salary Situation: Team Controlled Contract
2012 Projected Salary: $480K

Bench Estimated Payroll Impact: $4 million

Estimated Payroll: $114 million
Aaron Rowand ($12 million)
Total Payroll: $126 million